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To: RR who wrote (26306)	7/23/2000 12:47:20 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 35685

I hear you, Ranger money on the sidelines is large when the market concludes the Fed tightening cycle is 90% done, or maybe totally done, then the buying will come in... the market wants to rally... elections are coming, and any new president might consider impeaching Greenspan if he steers us toward a minimarket crash I dont for one minute think the Fed will achieve its "FIRST" soft landing I tend to believe that the Fed will hint in the next several weeks that they might LOWER interest rates later this year I think they will need to do so, in order to prevent a HARD landing thanks, Jim

To: RR who wrote (26306)	7/23/2000 10:10:28 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

for an interesting possible glimpse into the next few months... try looking at a chart of the Dow in 1994-95 compare it to a chart of the Dow in 2000 it is almost exactly alike, with springtime painful decline, unsure summer, midsummer breakout with no conviction... in 1994 we saw a strange short cover rally, the fire for which was lit by Loomis Sayles in the final days of August after no serious Aug hiatus decline at all... a final Fed rate hike then led to a sudden shorterm reversal in November... once that final hike was digested, it was off to the races for the biggest single year in 1995... Dow went past 4000 and proceeded to 6000 that year different factors were involved late in the year as we turned the corner... NAFTA was signed, then a Mexico bailout was signed, both in Jan/Feb95 timeframe... commodity prices for stuff like crude oil were all very low, as we emerged from a true recession, one that booted me out of a job at Digital after 13 years... that broke my heart I dont claim to know anything... but 1994 and 2000 have countless parallels... if history repeats itself, we could see the Dow matching the springtime highs by September... back in 1994 the Naz was just a little sister who mimicked the Dow... this year it clearly enjoyed a debutante ball in March, making a loud statement as to its own identity off on my trip, good luck to all / Jim