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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3944)	7/23/2000 10:43:42 PM
From: Red Dragon	Respond to of 5482

Donald: Again, I have backpedaled a bit, largely due to links and perspectives posted by Scott J and others on this post. To be honest, I have no opinion now on when the market top is going to occur. The point I was trying to make, however, is that many investors now seem to think a top may be on the horizon. Thus, all the hand-wringing and pain on this thread is bound to continue until that sentiment can be reversed. The thread can post as many valuation models as you'd like, but the investors aren't coming back until they feel secure that a top is not coming soon. And again, I'm no longer certain the cycle is topping soon. But many others now feel that way. I'm not sure what it will take to reverse the sentiment. The BTB ratio is a pretty lousy forecaster of the cycle, but for whatever reason, investors focus heavily on it, and it has fallen for several months in a row. If it's just a summer seasonal slowdown and starts to pick up later, then you might see a reversal in sentiment and the investors will come flocking back. Maybe investors need SSB to reverse their call. Maybe they need some executives to make bold, reassuring statements. Right now, it's not about the numbers. It's about sentiment, and perceptions the market it topping. That's why I predicted that investors would completely ignore the blowout earnings and instead concentrate on guidance for the future. Maybe all the SEMI conference calls weren't optimistic or bold enough. You guys need some event to reverse that sentiment. Good luck.