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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (10719)	7/24/2000 11:12:58 AM
From: Gus	Respond to of 17183

Tony, The Wit/Soundview article supports my earlier post that showed that by 2003, the Intel platform will dominate the $100,000 and under server market but it will still lag the Unix platform in the $100,000 and above market (Unix - 67%, Intel - 33%). Message 14091935 Sun is growing faster than the overall server market, which is growing in the mid-teens, because it is grabbing market share from the other Unix server companies so that neither proves or disproves anything about server-centricity vs storage-centricity. The only area where EMC competes directly with Sun is in storage networking and so far it is no contest, if you go by the number of FC switches sold. The director-class switch is one key component of any large-scale switched fabric. Mcdata has sold over $95 million in director-class switches to EMC during the last 6 quarters, with $69 million sold during the last 2 quarters alone. The only other vendor with director-class switches is Ancor, which has a joint venture with Inrange in director-class switches. Over the last 6 quarters, Ancor has sold over $25 million worth of FC switches, with roughly less than $2 million sold to Sun during the last 2 quarters; although, Ancor's sales to Sun did increase 44% sequentially from the 1Q to the 2Q. Still, the fact remains that EMC has already bought $69 million worth of director-class switches to support ESN revenues that grew 60% Q2Q and which already have an annual run rate of $1.6 billion while Sun has yet to reach the $2 million milestone, in terms of switch sales. That clearly demonstrates the widening lead that EMC, as the champion of the storage-centric IT model, is developing over Sun, the dominant Unix vendor (32%) which should provide the strongest defense of the long-entrenched server-centric IT model. I respect your skepticism about storage-centricity but don't let that make you miss the ironies developing in which, after enduring months and years of brickbats from its rivals about its mainframe heritage, its pricing structure, its proprietary architecture and its lack of commitment to open standards, EMC will drop a series of EMC-to-any-SAN connectivity bombs over the next few quarters that will widen the storage networking gap even more.<g>