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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (57133)	7/24/2000 9:19:35 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. July 24, 2000 Ord Oracle The S&P's went a little lower than expected but a bullish outcome is still expected. On today's decline the S&P's broke to a new recent low below the previous low of July 19 on much decreased volume of 874 million shares. A break below a previous low on lighter volume is bullish and implies the down is over. The "5 day ARMS" on the NYSE closed today at 5.83. Readings near "6.00" and above appear near lows. There is an ABC projection off the high of July 17 that had a downside target near the 1480 area on the September S&P's. Today's low was 1476.40. Also on July 12, the S&P broke above the previous high on higher volume, which implies a valid break out to the upside. The bigger trend is up; the market is going higher after this consolidation is complete. We are long the SPX at 1495.47. The VIX (Volatility Index) has been near a reading of 22 for weeks and needs to be corrected before the market can move substantially higher. Therefore, after the next rally is complete the market may have a significant correction. Nasdaq Composite "5 day ARMS" closed today at 6.46. The Nasdaq "5 day ARMS" over 5.25 is bullish and the higher the number above "5.25" the stronger the bottom. The Nasdaq Composite is near or at a significant low. We are long the Nasdaq Composite from the July 20 close at 4184.56. One reason we are bullish on the XAU is that a bullish "Down Sloping Wedge" pattern has been forming since the October 1998 high. This "Down Sloping Wedge" pattern has an upside target near the 95 level. What we don't know is when the Xau will break out of this "Wedge", but once it does a fast and strong move is anticipated. We are long the XAU.