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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (36012)	7/24/2000 6:41:05 PM
From: Fred Levine	Respond to of 70976

Continued... I'm still mulling over the theory that the price drop from 115 has a cause we don't yet know, and wonder if there has been any news of either a part shortage or an energy shortage effecting AMAT. Also, would a pr be released if the above had any validity? fred

To: Tony Viola who wrote (36012)	7/24/2000 6:41:32 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Tony, you said >Just another piece of evidence that's it's nearly over, huh?< You probably mean the increases of SEMI equipment orders are not over. I agree with that. But price increases of the stocks, that's another matter. EVERYONE must know by now that these stock prices are cyclical and just maybe enough investors think "this time I'll get out early". There may be a few clueless investors out there who don't know about the price cycles, but I doubt they carry that much weight. In summation: even if we knew ALL about the future ORDERS cycle we'd still be ignorant about how the bulk of investors will play it. I don't accept any more that rising orders guarantee rising stock prices, even though that has been seen in the past. Gottfried

To: Tony Viola who wrote (36012)	7/24/2000 6:46:20 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

From SG Cowen: Semiconductor Equipment Week 1 of earnings mixed, but points to promising L-T scenario. Order growth not as robust as in Qs past, highlighted by June's sequentially lower book-to-bill. SGC Equipment index down 8% last week in part due to Agilent (Buy; $47) shortfall over parts/component shortages, but this indicates that demand remains exceptionally strong, which bolsters positive L-T view. Valuations attractive at an average P/E ratio of 19. Top picks Applied Materials, Brooks Automation, Credence Systems, and Teradyne. AMAT $78/BRKS $56/CMOS $56/TER $69