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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (36017)	7/24/2000 9:13:43 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Some Comments: 1. The past cycle ended with peak prices approximately 20 times peaks earnings and the prices leading the earnngs by approximately 1 year. 2. Latest AMAT earnings forecast (YAHOO) $2.35 '00 and $3.38 '01. If the peak is $4.50 in '02 (2 more years of expansion), and investors make use of past data, $115 qualifies for the cycle peak, albeit with a 3 year lead time. 3. Much higher prices require: 1. higher growth rates; 2. longer up cycle; and 3. another round of irrational exhuberance. Quantify these, pick a target, and don't be piggish. 4. OT - I have read posts by Brian and Justa on various semi-equip threads for a number of years and I respect and appreciate both. I believe that the discord displayed here and the uncharacteristic lack of civility should serve as a warning to all of us. If emotion and personal attack are allowed to replace rational, polite discourse, no-one is immune from being sucked in and we all are worse off for it.