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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (25927)	7/25/2000 10:20:20 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Paul, I should have extended my explanation. So the further out the prediction or the attempting to make the big call opens up environment to more variables. The more the varibles the lower the probability in prediction. That 62% probabilty is at best, not the norm. Heres an anology. What is harder to predict. Tomorrows closing price, within 50 points, or the closing price on or a month from now or on JULY 25, 2001 a year from now. I realise that is an extreme analogy, but trying to paint a picture that the probability to predict further out decrease. Another is what is the probability that some jerky country will use an atomic bomb within a week or within 10 years. I just checked the SPX and I have the TRENDLINE around 1475 for today and, eyeballing it, it appears that it is inclining at the approx rate of about 2-3 points a day. seeya