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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (158820)	7/25/2000 12:22:04 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Relative to growth going forward: On the PC side, Europe still lags the US with only 1.4 users per 10 households Japan at 2.5 users per 10 households Latin America - way less than 1/5th of 1% (.15) user per 10 households China - no better than Latin America Yet, we see China reporting growth of 50%, Latin America (specifically Brazil) nearly equal to 50%. One of these quarters Europe is going to pick up the drag - probably the last two qtrs of this year. Europe has been dragging for two years now. They are so far behind the computing curve that many corporations under 1000 employees continue to use pen and pencil to perform financial tasks. For an area where 20% of the population can hook to the internet via a cell phone, it is odd that they are so far behind on the utilization of the PC. The pick up in laptop sales comes to Europe via the wireless offerings. a) Much of the U.S. NON-USE of computers comes from the older population (23% at 60 plus) wherein the use is only about 10%. With the movement of the babyboomers into older age (who utilize computers much more frequently) and the movement of the younger generations (those less than 30 are the highest ownership group at 70%) into the computing age, use of PC should continue to proliferate going forward. This is true worldwide. b) College campuses are now required ALL students come equipped with a laptop - not only in the US but worldwide. As goes the college, so goes the high, middle and elementary schools.

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (158820)	7/25/2000 12:37:01 PM
From: OLDTRADER	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

I have felt for years-used to be a broker with them -that the analysts at ML are agenda -(tradingf desk-inspired/driven)--Huruuumph uh---!Pardon me!

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (158820)	7/25/2000 12:52:21 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

One arrives at $.23 in earnings with: (a) at least a 7.2% profit margin on $7.9+ in revenue (1) You arrive at least a 7.2% profit margin due to the 50% growth in Enterprise Sales as Dell stated the ASM (laptops also yield a higher margin) (b) at least $.01 to $.02 in earnings. Since Dell has nearly $4 billion in CASH, even at 5% per annum in interest, the yield is nearly $.10 per annum, or $.025 per qtr. If, as Fortuna predicts, Dell's revenue is $7.75 billion instead of the $7.9 billion he was expecting, then profit drops from $568 million to $558 million, or a whole $10 million. Not a big deal. Earnings from operations would still yield $.21 given the method of earnings calculation. Investment earnings would yield another $.01 to $.02. Enterprise sales yield a PM of anywhere from 18% to 23%. PCs bw 3.5% and 5%, and Laptops in excess of 10%