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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36047)	7/25/2000 5:55:46 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, You follow more of the backend than I, so that may be the cause of our differing perspectives. However in the case of KLIC, I believe their btb for the quarter was about 1.04 or 1.05 with much of those orders scheduled for delivery in the current quarter. Clearly that's a slowing in the growth rate from a couple quarters ago. IMO, that slowing growth rate is a must and not significant to assessing the chip or the chip equipment sector's outlook. The magnitude of equipment being ordered, shipped and committed to production is indicative of huge growth in consumer demand for chip based products. And if you listen to Mitch's final comments in PRIA's conference call, you'll find another CEO who thinks this ball game is just getting started. Ian.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36047)	7/26/2000 9:02:44 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Contract DRAM Prices Rise in U.S., Europe, Asia July 26, 2000 (TOKYO) -- The prices of DRAM microchips continue to rise in three major markets around the world. The prices of 64Mb DRAMs for large-volume users are sure to reach the US$8 mark at the end of July. The rising trend is expected to continue into August. Industry observers say it will not lose momentum until PC manufacturers secure their share of DRAMs for the year-end sales season, which is likely to occur at the end of October. DRAMs are in large demand not only for PCs, but also for servers and digital set-top boxes. This has caused a supply shortage. A worldwide DRAM price survey conducted by ICIS-LOR, based in London, Houston and Singapore, showed that the 30-day rolling average prices of 128Mb DRAMs (PC133, 16M x 8) for large-volume users between June 8 and July 7 were US$14.03 in North America, US$13.92 in Europe and US$12.36 in Asia. Compared with the previous week (the 30-day rolling average prices till June 30), the prices rose by 2.24 percent in North America, by 2.78 percent in Europe and by 4.01 percent in Asia. The spot prices for 128MB DIMM (PC133) memory modules rose by 5.14 percent from the previous week to US$133.37 in North America, by 4.2 percent to US$130.62 in Europe and by 5.68 percent to US$125.31 in Asia.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36047)	7/28/2000 3:09:22 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

AMAT has been in a trading range. The question is, will there be a further ramp-up in expectations, to create another step-up for the stock, or is this a topping formation? Since I last posted here, the news seems to be gradually indicating that the 2000 chip shortages will result in a 2002 chip glut. I am making the (safe, IMO) assumption that the industry hasn't improved it's ability to predict future demand, and the current undersupply causes overbuilding which causes oversupply. 2002 is still a long way off, however, and another big new unforeseen need for chips (which seems to happen regularly) could push the glut out to 2003 or 2004. news.ft.com The money I took out of AMAT and INTC in January, is now in WCOM, QCOM, MSFT, BSX, and CMH. All those purchases were posted in realtime, and were made at or just above their yearly lows. In several cases, those were multi-year lows. Obviously, I timed my AMAT sale poorly, continuing my pattern of selling too early. But I have not changed my opinion that AMAT is overvalued at any P/S above 6, and I feel a lot more comfortable owning quality out-of-favor stocks, rather than quality stocks selling at the extreme high end of their valuation range. JS@thevoiceofdoom.edu When my MSFT 2003 LEAPs are in longterm cap gains territory, it may be time to rotate back into AMAT. At the moment, I have no position in any semi-equip, and no price I'd buy at. I'll be back, but I'm prepared to be very patient, waiting for the next cyclical bottom.