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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (28789)	7/25/2000 5:09:54 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Gaming is all about product adoption. If Product A is "as good as" Product B in meeting the needs of the adopters as percieved by those adopters, that's the end of the story insofar as gorilla gaming is concerned Understood perfectly. My whole point is that we are talking about prospective adoption when we are looking forward to prospective tornados. My belief is that the likely path for digital photography is that the lead part of that tornado will be characterized by purchasers for whom the particular characteristics of digital photography are unique and compelling -- indeed, this (plus a bit of latest toy syndrome) is exactly why sales have been as brisk as they have already -- people who are computer users, emailing or posting images, able to do so based on as little as a single shot. The "as good as" comparison tends to suggest that we have gotten to a point where main stream camera buyers have reached a toss-up as to whether to go analog or digital. This is clearly not the case because images of the quality produced by all but the very high end and consequently expensive digital cameras can be equalled by very low end film cameras. I believe the real issue with digital camera adoption, and thus the basis for the timing and size of the tornado, lies in dropping price and in quality that is "good enough", i.e., the issue for the bulk of current generation digital camera buyers isn't whether the image is better or worse than film, but whether it is good enough for the purpose. If you are emailing, publishing on a web site, or printing in a small enough image size, the answer is now that it can be good enough and the question is price point. Price point will plummet; quality will soar; and more and more people will fit within the envelope. But, it will be a number of years before it competes with film head on.