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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: f.simons who wrote (2266)	7/25/2000 7:09:12 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 275872

Frank, re:"Well, they just posted two record quarters and are down about $13. The market is not the rational animal you think it is." That post should strike some fear into some of our more exuberant gamblers. Particularly folks who have bet the farm on Jan 120 calls. We have had our irrational exhuberants and hopefully they will hedge their bets somehwhat. regards, Kash

To: f.simons who wrote (2266)	7/25/2000 7:13:16 PM
From: Eric K.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Frank-- Re: The market is not the rational animal you think it is. Of course it's rational. When the Septium comes out at 1.5 GHz in high volume, with speedy RDRAM at a 5% premium to DDR, AMD will once again be out-priced and relegated to massive losses. The expectations are probably not that unrealistic, but I think most investors expect the P4 to come out by October, in volume, and ahead of the Athlon in speed, and also expect a lot more overall capacity, which will allow the simply wonderful "Intel Inside" branding campaign and the oh-so-germane multi-chime and astronauts in bunny suits endeavors to let the inferior manufacturer (design is somehow very rarely discussed in articles about AMD/INTC over the last decade) sink to mediocore profitability. This makes people not overly enthusiastic to run in and buy AMD, which is coupled with a general liquidation/shorting of the SOX (check out National semi's performance of the last few months) to have deleterious effects on our otherwise lovely stock. Intel is not being punished because Microsoft, AOL, and some of the other horsemen of the bull market have bona-fide issues and can no longer be aggressively ramped upward with a straight face. Hence, that money now flows to trusty Intel, whose new internet initiatives are, regardless of how flaky some of us view them as, quite a bit better than those of many other companies. -Eric