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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (57173)	7/26/2000 1:04:24 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Les, my wave read of the Dow, (which concurs with that msft count, that we are now in wave 5 down on msft) is that we had an a wave down to march, and ABC B wave that was completed a couple of sessions ago with a five wave move out of the mult-month triangle (which was wave b of B) and we are now in wave c, if wave A=C we are looking at around 8800 for the bottom. This also fits with the three drives to a top rising wedge on the Value line, each peak showing a loss of momentum and internals, i think this rally in nyse breadth from the march lows is over we are going to make a fifth wave to new lows. b

To: Les H who wrote (57173)	7/26/2000 1:12:21 PM
From: russet	Respond to of 99985

Bad news for Canadian pigs,...they are getting slaughtered in ever increasing numbers (ggggggggggggggg). Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index lifts Wed July 26,2000 Ms. Patricia Mohr reports Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index report, which measures price trends in Canada's major exports, jumped by 3.5 per cent in June -- a level 15.2 per cent above a year earlier. Surging natural gas prices and additional gains in crude oil more than offset significant declines in the forest product, and metal and mineral Indices, and a slight decline in agricultural products. "West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose from $28.81 (U.S.) per barrel in May to $31.53 (U.S.) in June and have stayed above $30 (U.S.) for much of July," said Patricia Mohr, vice-president and commodities specialist, Scotia Economics. "OPEC oil production dropped slightly in June as a temporary reduction of 490,000 barrels per day by Iraq more than balanced a slight increase of 250,000 barrels per day by the rest of OPEC. However, Saudi Arabia has announced its intention of boosting oil output, pushing prices down to about $28 (U.S.) in late July." Natural gas prices have followed oil prices lower in recent weeks. According to Ms. Mohr: "A lack of intense summer heat across the United States, as well as a wave of U.S. drilling activity concentrated on natural gas and slightly higher storage injection rates, have also moderated prices. However, gas-in-storage is still 20 per cent below year-earlier levels and will probably be fairly low entering this winter's heating season." In June, the Forest Product Index lost further ground as lower building material and uncoated free sheet paper prices more than countered slight gains in newsprint and supercalendered A paper. In mid-June, Western spruce-pine-fir 2x4 lumber prices dropped from a profitable first-quarter average of $331 (U.S.) per thousand board feet to $220 (U.S.) in mid-July -- covering no more than average variable costs in the British Columbia interior. In the bellwether U.S. north-central region, oriented strandboard prices are currently $164 (U.S.) per thousand square feet -- still profitable at 1.6 times average variable costs in Ontario and Quebec, but down from an extraordinarily lucrative $262 (U.S.) in the first quarter. "In contrast, pulp prices continue to strengthen," said Ms. Mohr. "Northern bleached softwood kraft pulp rose by another $30 (U.S.) in the United States in July, taking prices to $710 (U.S.) per tonne -- 45 per cent above the February, 1999, low. The price of supercalendered A paper -- used in magazines and catalogues -- also edged up to $850 (U.S.) per ton, as a $60 (U.S.) price hike was fully implemented. Booming print-media advertising in the United States has lifted demand for pulp and paper." The Metal and Mineral Index retreated in June as weaker copper, zinc, nickel and uranium prices more than offset firmer prices for aluminium, gold and molybdenum. Most base metal prices have rallied in July, partly due to the sharp decline in LME inventories in recent months. Aluminium prices have rebounded to 71 U.S. cents per pound, after falling to only 66 U.S. cents in May and June, while copper prices have bounced back to 84 U.S. cents per pound from 79 U.S. cents in June. The Agricultural Index also edged down in June as slightly lower cattle, hog, wheat and canola prices offset firmer lobster prices. The Canadian Wheat Board's asking export price for No. 1 grade spring wheat slipped from $149 (U.S.) per tonne in May to $147 (U.S.) in June. "Harvest pressure continues to keep wheat prices at a low ebb in July," said Ms. Mohr. "Canadian farmers are looking to balance low prices with higher volumes, planting 6 per cent more wheat than last year, though the increase reflects a large pickup in durum wheat for pasta rather than milling wheat for bread." On a positive note, Ms. Mohr added: "Canada has become the world's leading pork exporter -- a major success story for Canadian agriculture. This year, exports are expected to rise by 24 per cent and 17 per cent in 2001."