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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (10997)	7/26/2000 7:29:21 PM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78673

i bought a tiny bit more cege as it turned net negative late today.

To: James Clarke who wrote (10997)	7/26/2000 9:31:25 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78673

>Wanna know what Burry looks like? He's got a picture on > his website. Sorry, Mike... We have to make sure that Britney Spears doesn't see his photo.... :-)))) Jurgis

To: James Clarke who wrote (10997)	7/26/2000 9:38:11 PM
From: Brendan O'Connor	Respond to of 78673

Re: HBP. Just a guess from a quick look at the 10K and 10Q: Are you betting that they'll realize the expected $15 million annual consolidation savings and at the same time discontinue the $1 million+ quarterly restructuring charges? This would give them about $19 million+ more operating income, or about $11 million+ more net income, or about $.50 to $.55/share more income in the next four quarters than in the previous four (ending 3/31/00 or 6/30/00, take your pick). Reported income being $.59/share for FY1999, this could give them reported income in the range of $1.15/share for FY2000. $1.15/share for FY2000 is in fact the estimate given by the sole analyst on the Yahoo! "Research" page. The anaylst's estimate for FY2001 earnings is $1.30/share. The stock traded today in the 4 1/2 to 4 3/4 range. 4 3/4 is 4.13x the FY2000 estimate and 3.65x the FY2001 estimate. Is there something else significant I still haven't found? Brendan P.S. If I recall correctly, you've been following Crane for some time. What do you think is the likelihood that management will execute to plan and actually save the $15 million annually pre-tax (as well as keep the restructuring costs down to the expected amount)?

To: James Clarke who wrote (10997)	7/27/2000 3:46:12 PM
From: Michael Burry	1 Recommendation Respond to of 78673

I'll second CAT, and Jim's Huttig (which comes courtesy of Jim's Crane). I've bought both. Can't bring myself to second WPO, though maybe twister or Warren Buffett can. But the purpose of this post is Senior Housing, a stock that I proposed and was discussed not so long ago. Today they did something very significant. They sold Brookfield. That's their best property holding, with the best tenants and best lease terms (for SNH). My initial reaction was "Oh crap." But it looks like FFO by my calculations will only dip about 1.5-2 mill thanks to saved interest expense, and the dividend is still well-covered by the only slightly-less rock solid Marriot leases. But this telegraphed some other positives. One, management is not simply inflating assets. A worry was that they would not sell assets when prudent to pay down debt, as they get paid based on a % of assets. Here we have a loss of assets. That tells me management is doing right by shareholders to a large degree, and makes me more comfortable. Second, the properties were sold for about 20% more than the price paid by SNH. The Marriott properties sit up at $325 million paid by SNH, or thereabouts. The market cap of SNH now is $217.8 million plus what will be only a little over $55M in debt. There are also a few other properties but I don't need a calculator to find the margin of safety here. It's big. And the dividend still seems safe. Third, Senior Housing may actually be able to realize some value for shareholders. If management is willing to sell assets - as I said, not necessarily an expected attitude - then Senior Housing may realize more gains, keeping the Marriott properties to pay the dividend. Good Investing, Mike