Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. - AGE (U.S. AEM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TATRADER who wrote (1047)	7/26/2000 8:01:49 PM
From: Robert J Mullenbach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1612

Here is some TA on AEM and NEM, if you have not seen it yet. members.home.net TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ( It will be easier if you print the graph first ) AEM - Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd What a beauty for an Elliottician! A textbook impulse wave down ( a ) from May 96 to September 98. On the other hand, it was not that pretty if you owned that stock. The bears shaved off more than 85% of Agnico-Eagle value. While some were leaking there wound,, AEM bounced back in another textbook Elliott structure, this time a classic Zig Zag ( wave A ) with the middle wave ( wave ( b ) ) taking the shape of a well proportioned triangle. That rally stopped few cents passed a perfect 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ( a ). The ensuing decline from last October to the recent low in early May is only a three waves affair telling us it was a corrective structure. Besides it stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rise ( wave A ). All those facts are very clear indicators of what to expect next. More bullish action to come and it can be very bullish. The first scenario, the most bullish, is the one I am showing on the weekly chart,. Not that I think it is the most likely but it implies a very nice rally above 10.00 towards next resistance at 12.50 where wave C would equal wave A and then 13.75 the 61.8% retracement of wave ( a ). That scenario is indeed very bullish but we have to keep in mind that since September 98, AEM has drifting higher as opposed to the XAU and its recent bottom in May was a decent 100% gain since September 98. Much better than the XAU !. A move above 10.00 will confirm that count. But let's be objective. There's also another very possible scenario. It is also perfectly correct to label AEM as moving sideways in a large contracting triangle. Current advance would be wave C and good target is at 8.00$ where it would equal 61.8 % wave B. That would be followed by wave D that should reach the lower trendline before the last leg, wave E emerges and moves up above 7.00. If during the next expected rise in Gold, AEM refuses to move above 10.00 then that scenario will definitely become the most probable. Moving back below 5.00$ will negate my view. NEM - Newmount Mining Corporation Here another stock that took a beating from its 96'high. Although the descent is not as clear as AEM, from its September 98 low, NEM has been moving sideways confirming the corrective nature of this rally. On the weekly chart one can easily identify a triangle. The challenge is to determine if it is a bullish or a bearish triangle. Given my bullish bias for now, I suggest it is a bullish one meaning the next move of consequence is a sharp thrust up to above 30. One thing for sure, we know exactly where we will be proven right of dead wrong. From its May high, NEM seems to be declining in a choppy manner which is in line with a wave ( e ), the last wave of a triangle. If it's correct then at no time NEM should move past below 19 1/8, the start of wave ( c ) . If it does, that will negate the contracting triangle, or at least the way I count it. On the other hand, moving above 28 3/8 and specially 30, will definitely indicate the expected thrust is unfolding. Target for the completion of wave ( b ) is 35 and a possible 42-45 where lies the 61.8% retracement and chart resistance. Time wise it is interesting to notice that by the end of June, the bullish triangle would have lasted a Fibonacci 89-weeks, then if the thrust up last as long as its sister wave A which was about 6 weeks, that would call for a top sometime at the end of July, early August right on time to meet the 114 and 38-cycle peak. Although, cycles are much more accurate at their bottoms than at their highs making this observation just something interesting to keep an eye on. If the bearish contracting triangle wave ( b ) is prevailing then expect NEM to go back below 13$. Event If the current descent is choppy it can still be part of a bearish triangle. Then we have to count the action from 19 1/8 as wave E unfolding in a triangle itself. Current leg down would be wave ( b ). If it's the case expect NEM to coil sideways with decease volatility and volume before it falls off the cliff towards new low. Again, breaching 19$ will more likely confirm that bearish scenario.