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To: FJB who wrote (4212)7/26/2000 11:41:51 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 5867
 
Bob,

To me the most significant part of the call came in the Q&A re DRAM sector. It was the answer to the penultimate question [second last question for those without a dictionary handy. :-)]

Bagley was asked by my friend from UTEK days, the Cowen analyst Tia Min Pang why he believed that the DRAM guys wouldn't overbuild - the same as they've always done.

Bagley's answer was quite extensive.

1. Because they're spending their own money this time. And that causes them to behave very differently than when they were spending government money, or bank money or anyone else's.

2. Wafer starts have left the DRAM sector.

3. Additional capacity is being directed to other sectors.

4. DRAM guys have been getting more capacity from shrinks not from wafer starts. They are nearing the end of that approach and will be forced to add capacity. Bagley expects major capacity equipment orders from the DRAM sector during 2001.

So much for JonJoe's slowdown or end of cycle!!!

It was an extensive, well informed and well reasoned answer based upon the evidence that Bagley has seen rather than JonJoe's braindead analysis and misreading of a statistic which probably isn't accurate in the first place.

Specific guidance of $0.43 was given for the next quarter based upon 147.5M diluted shares.

Ian.