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To: gpowell who wrote (24042)	7/26/2000 10:39:34 PM
From: gpowell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Quarter Subscribers Increase %Increase 16-Jun-00 23,000,000 800,000 3.60% 31-Mar-00 22,200,000 1,700,000 8.29% 31-Dec-99 20,500,000 1,800,000 9.63% 30-Sep-99 18,700,000 1,100,000 6.14% 30-Jun-99 17,619,000 755,000 4.48% 31-Mar-99 16,864,000 1,778,000 11.79% 31-Dec-98 15,086,000 1,599,000 11.86% 30-Sep-98 13,487,000 952,000 7.59% 30-Jun-98 12,535,000 665,000 5.60% 31-Mar-98 11,870,000 1,148,000 10.71% 31-Dec-97 10,722,000 1,265,000 13.38% 30-Sep-97 9,457,000 821,000 9.51% 30-Jun-97 8,636,000 600,000 7.47% 31-Mar-97 8,036,000 184,000 2.34% 31-Dec-96 7,852,000 1,240,000 18.75% 30-Sep-96 6,612,000 414,000 6.68% 30-Jun-96 6,198,000 415,000 7.18% 31-Mar-96 5,783,000 1,112,00 23.81% 31-Dec-95 4,671,000 927,000 24.76% 30-Sep-95 3,744,000 739,000 24.59% 30-Jun-95 3,005,000 692,000 29.92% 31-Mar-95 2,313,000 735,000 46.58% 31-Dec-94 1,578,000 420,000 36.27% 30-Sep-94 1,158,000 255,000 28.24% 30-Jun-94 903,000 191,000 26.83% 31-Mar-94 712,000 181,000 34.09% 31-Dec-93 531,000 144,000 37.21% 30-Sep-93 387,000 84,500 27.93% 30-Jun-93 302,500 57,500 23.47% 31-Mar-93 245,000 26,000 11.87% 31-Dec-92 219,000 24,800 12.77% 30-Sep-92 194,200 12,600 6.94% 30-Jun-92 181,600 --

To: gpowell who wrote (24042)	7/27/2000 11:29:54 AM
From: Michaelth1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

gpowell: <<Remember the Pentium bug? The busy signal crisis at AOL?> Yes and yes. Have people stopped buying Intel chips or signing up for AOL? No and no. In fact, they are doing so at faster rates than prior to these crises. The busy signal problem was in 1996, correct? Let’s look at AOL’s sequential growth rate since Jun of 92 (see post linked to this one). Examining the data, prior to the “busy signal crisis” AOL grew their subscriber base, sequentially, at an average of 26.3%. After the crisis the growth has slowed to an average of 9.4%. So much for your “fact”. > I didn't mean that the growth rate increased after those "crises", I meant (I could have been clearer) that the absolute number of purchases (not percentage increases) increased since those incidents. AOL is a mature business and it's fairly unrealistic to think that it could keep the growth rates of pre-1996. According to your stats (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14114291), in the 4 years from June 92 to June 96, AOL added about 6 million subs; in the 4 years since, AOL added about 17 million subs. Doesn't seem, to me, like a crises.