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Technology Stocks : AWARE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobo who wrote (448)	7/27/2000 7:46:09 AM
From: Peace	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2404

Bobo, I don't like to argue.<g> I respect your opinion as well as stockdon's. Good luck with your trades. Peace

To: Bobo who wrote (448)	7/28/2000 10:05:42 AM
From: StockDon	Respond to of 2404

Don't think you can judge market share based on sequential revenue growth. Aware's flat Q3 royalty growth was not a surprise to anyone. Pluckhahn's sequential royalty growth estimate was only 1%. Why? Seasonal slowdown for Lucent WildWire sales. I would guess that Aware's 2.85 million in royalty revenue was 95% due to ADI's ADSL chipset sales. And keep in mind that this royalty revenue is from Q1 chipset sales. While the 7% sequential number may not appear impressive, the fact that is was due to one customer makes it all the more impressive to me. Why did the analysts not ask Aware about this? Well, Aware guided the analysts to a single digit sequential royalty growth and that is what they reported. There was no surprise. Now, back to the sequential revenue growth of other companies. Why does Globespan have higher sequential growth than Aware? Simple, they have a much smaller ADSL market share than ADI and Alcatel, so a decent increase in sales translates into high sequential growth. Look at Centillium, they reported 106% sequential revenue growth (4.7M to 9.8M) last quarter. Does that mean Centillium is the ADSL market share leader? I think not. I'm only predicting that Aware will post at least 25% sequential royalty growth this quarter and 35% in Q4. One more thing. ADI is not losing market share, in fact, I think it's just the opposite. StockDon