To: scouser who wrote (1542 ) 7/28/2000 4:57:13 PM From: CIMA Respond to of 2182 Stockscores.com Perspectives For the week ending July 21, 2000 In this week’s issue: - Commentary: Excuses - Feature Strategy: Conservative Breakouts - Tip of the Week: Go to Summer School - How to subscribe to the Stockscores.com Perspectives Daily Edition ***Stockscores.com Commentary*** I was watching CNBC one day this week, and a particular segment caught my attention. Now it will catch my wrath. Each day, the financial network has guest analysts who make their stock picks and discuss their outlook for the market. The guest of honor on the day I was watching was an analyst from a major US bank, someone apparently quite esteemed in her field. She is probably making somewhere around 10 times the average American’s salary. In the preamble to the interview, the host brought up the three stocks that this analyst had recommended the last time she was a guest on CNBC, which was about three months prior. Two of the stocks were down over 25%, and the third was down about 10%. She appeared around the time that the Nasdaq was bottoming after the April crash, so the market in general has made some pretty decent gains in the same time period. After the embarrassment of having her performance quoted to the millions of CNBC viewers, the guest was quick to point out that her company, and presumably the analyst herself, are not market timers but those who seek out quality companies good for the long term. I laughed loud enough to wake my dog from a nice nap in a warm sunbeam. What the heck is this person hired to do? Buy good companies that lose investors money? Good companies are those that go up in value and make their shareholders a good return. The more share prices appreciate the better the company, at least in my books. But maybe big banks and brokerages have a different proxy for what makes a company good. As the interview carried on, it became clear to me what the standard is. As viewers called in to ask about stocks they were interested in, I noticed that this analyst refused to say anything particularly bad about any of the stocks that were brought up. Even when it was obvious she didn’t like a particular stock, she was quick to point out the merits of the particular company and how they still had good potential. I imagine that she hoped it was her bank that could help these companies realize their potential. All it would take was a nice investment banking deal with the accompanying big fees that paid her healthy salary, and their company could become the next stock of mention for our non market timing analyst. It is important to understand that I don’t blame the analyst for the way things work; it is good business to be nice to the companies that pay the bills. I also give kudo’s to CNBC for tracking, and quoting, an analyst’s performance. It gives those of us who don’t work for the brokers and banks a little bit of truth serum. Not everyone has the time or expertise to make their own investment decisions. For those who rely on analysts and brokers to give them advice on where to place their money, please understand how the game works. Judge analysts by their performance. If your source of information is not beating the market, then you are not being given an edge. Understand where the firm is making their money, and look at the numbers. If the market returns 15%, and your analysts returns anything less, feed them to the dogs and look for a better source of information. Enough Said. ***Stockscores.com Feature Strategy *** This week, I thought I would do a pretty simple scan that I find very effective for finding stocks that have good potential to go in to up trends. The criteria are simple; we want to find stocks making breakouts through resistance for the first time, or near breakout points, with good volume support and generally good chart patterns. To narrow our search, we can focus on one exchange at a time and also consider stocks within a particular price range. I chose to focus on more conservative NYSE listed stocks between $10 and $50. The Stockscores.com Market Scan filters should be set up as follows: Score Rating = Bullish Exchange = NYSE Price >=10 <=50 Price of 150 day high <=5 % Today relative to 20 day volume average = Above $ Value Volume >= 5000000 The scan revealed 33 candidates. I then visually inspect the charts individually to find stocks that are showing signs that new and significant information is starting to be priced in to the stock. This is best shown when a stock is breaking through significant resistance, since resistance is the most investors are willing to pay for a company given all that they know about that company. Breakouts typically happen because of new information, or a change in psychology. Of the 33, I like the following the best: The Bank of New York (BK) breaking out of an optimistic upward consolidation pattern. Countrywide Credit Inc (CCR) break to a new high, long term uptrend, closed near its high on the breakout. International Game Tech (IGT) pushing through resistance, from a sector that is showing strength in general. The Rouse Company (RSE) stock chart shows optimism, good upward momentum that looks likely to continue. Try this scan on a regular basis on any market or price range you are interested in, it yields some good candidates. ***Stockscores.com Site Tip of the Week*** Those new to technical analysis or Stockscores.com should spend some time at school. The School section of the Stockscores.com web site is a good resource for learning the basics of technical analysis and the methods used at Stockscores.com. Good summer reading for those looking to learn how to become better investors. ***Stockscores.com Perspective Daily Edition*** Each day, we scan the market for opportunities and reveal only the best to our Daily Edition subscribers by email. Plus, we provide comments on past features with regular updates, helping you understand how to trade these features. A two-week free trial is available for new subscribers. To enroll, simply send a request to tyler@stockscores.com. We will have you added within a week of your request. One-year subscriptions are available at the following rates: $100US $125CDN Checks can be sent, made out to Perspectives, to: Perspectives 1919B - 4th Street S.W. Suite 167 Calgary, AB T2S 1W4 ***References*** To get the Stockscore on any of over 20,000 North American stocks:stockscores.com For a background on the theories used by Stockscores:stockscores.com For strategies that can help you find new opportunities:stockscores.com To scan the market using extensive filter criteria:stockscores.com To build a portfolio of stocks and view a slide show of their charts:stockscores.com To see which sectors are leading the market, and the stock components:stockscores.com ***Change of Email Address or Removal from Email List Please go to the Registration area of the site, and utilize the Edit tool. Disclaimer __________ This is not an investment advisory, and should not be used to make investment decisions. Information in Stockscores Perspectives is often opinionated and should be considered for information purposes only. No stock exchange anywhere has approved or disapproved of the information contained herein. There is no express or implied solicitation to buy or sell securities. The writers and editors of Perspectives may have positions in the stocks discussed above and may trade in the stocks mentioned. Don't consider buying or selling any stock without conducting your own due diligence.