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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (48032)	7/27/2000 8:01:54 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Re: INTEL cuts off AMD and VIA I know this upsets you Scum but we have to deal with reality sooner or later. AMD stock peaked at 97 and closed today at 70 off 38% from its peak. The bottom has not yet been reached on AMD stock price. The Intel announcement effectively denies Via the DDR chipset market for P4. It also permits Intel to cover the entire performance/value spectra for the P4. This affects both the desktop and notebook markets. Jerry has had an effective anti Intel propaganda campaign going since last October. The strategy was to attack Rambus which AMD is not even using and push DDR which no one is yet using as main memory. The intent was to interfere with Intel's product transition plans for the P4 and capitalize on any mistakes that might occur. Very clever! But the real target was always Intel and Rambus was simply a pawn in this game. Ultimately, it has little effect on Rambus since it will collect royalties on Sdram, DDR Sdram and Sgram, as well a RDRAM and the memory controllers. Marketing is going to have a difficult time selling infringing chipsets and memory to the OEMs. I can't see DELL buying DDR from Micron when it can get licensed product from Toshiba. The Taiwan manufacturers risk interdiction of the exports to the US when it contains infringing chipsets and memory as witnessed by Sega. AMD and Via will have to come up with some other approach to dealing with "the great satan of chips." JMO :)

To: Scumbria who wrote (48032)	7/27/2000 9:27:38 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Scumbria; Re Intel cutting the legs off of AMD and VIA... Intel is showing unmistakable (and repeated) signs of making RDRAM walk the plank, thereby allowing themselves to once again dominate the chipset market. AMD investors, having always felt that Rambus was the worst First Mate on the seven seas, and an albatross around Intel's neck, dump their stock overboard at a prospective P/E of 10. But does this faze the long term RMBS bulls? Are they willing to book 4x profits in the face of Intel all but announcing that RDRAM will still be rare and expensive through the end of 2001? No, the gathering cyclone clouds have a silver lining. No problem that the industry is dumping RDRAM (beyond the 12-mile limit) about as fast as it can. But after losing those cushy accommodations on the SS Intel, they won't have to get their RIMMs wet in the salty, they have new quarters on board the Royalties lifeboat. Oars manned by lawyers, they will pull for more profitable seas. This is going to be fun to watch. -- Carl