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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (106650)	7/28/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Ok, Gloat Gloat Gloat. Congratulations, Bilow, on your good research. Hope you made some money off of it. 30 points to go. 10 billion market cap and lost money every day of its life at increasing speed as its market matures. What an incredible opportunity for shorts.

To: Bilow who wrote (106650)	1/31/2001 10:34:02 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 164684

Hi all; Is it time for old bears to drop by and gloat? Nearly 18 months ago, I posted predictions for the following 18 months worth of AMZN revenues. These were done using a simple mathematical technique, but it didn't work out too badly. Here's the results (thousands of dollars): Period Prediction Actual Error 3Q99 $356579 $355777 0% 4Q99 508314 676042 -33% 1Q00 522684 573889 -9% 2Q00 503003 577876 -14% 3Q00 520605 637858 -22% 4Q00 705623 972000 -38% "The AMZN story is that the current losses are of no great importance, and that they are instead building a market. What is important, instead, is the growth rate in the revenue of the company. I, and most of the other shorts on this thread, believe that the growth of AMZN is a lot closer to being finished than the longs, and that the recent quarter's results are supportive of our belief. There has been some suggestion on this thread that AMZN's recent quarter's results were not really comparable to the previous quarter's reseults due to seasonality. The purpose of this note is to analyze AMZN's revenue numbers with this caveat in mind. In other words, I am going to look at the revenue series in ways that will eliminate seasonality effects." #reply-10755819 It looks like I was a little low, but not too shabby considering that AMZN was growing at 171% year over year at the time I made the post. This is a great example of how declines in growth rates can be mathematically predicted. The worst part of the news for AMZN is that the core books, music, and video business is only growing 11% year over year, and the rest of the business is highly unprofitable: biz.yahoo.com The stock price is down about $40 from then, to around $18 now. -- Carl