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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zoltan! who wrote (26201)	7/28/2000 9:48:46 AM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

A statistical dead heat, but enough to gloat..........

To: Zoltan! who wrote (26201)	7/28/2000 9:51:38 AM
From: lawdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

every other poll clearly shows the Dems taking control of Congress and their lead has been solid. Gore is gaining on Doobya in the Presidential polls and the Dems will also control Congress. Your poll is incorrect, Zooty.

To: Zoltan! who wrote (26201)	7/28/2000 9:58:17 AM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 769667

POLL RELEASES July 28, 2000 Bush Strengthens Lead Heading Into Convention Latest poll shows double-digit lead by Jeffrey M. Jones GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- Next week, the delegates to the Republican convention in Philadelphia will formally nominate George W. Bush as their candidate for president. Bush goes into the convention with a favorable positioning in the minds of the American public, leading Democrat Al Gore by a 50% to 39% margin in a four-way ballot in which Green Party nominee Ralph Nader registers 4% and likely Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan gets 1%. A two-way race between Gore and Bush shows 54% of likely voters currently favoring Bush compared to 40% for Gore. Bush’s current strength among likely voters may be due in large part to the recent increase in media attention devoted to his campaign. The speculation about Bush’s selection of a vice presidential running mate dominated political news coverage until he officially named former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney to the number two spot on the ticket this past Tuesday. Now, political coverage is shifting quickly to the Republican Party convention in Philadelphia next week, where Bush will be nominated as the GOP’s candidate for president. All this has left little room for the Gore campaign to make its mark on the news and to create favorable impressions among voters. Whether Bush receives an additional "bounce" in the polls following the Republican convention remains to be seen, but his current margin over Gore represents the high end of the range for his lead in polls conducted over the past several months, and presents a challenge for the Gore campaign in its attempt to recover positioning when attention shifts to the Democratic convention, to be held in Los Angeles next month. Bush Doing Better Among Women and Independents The latest poll shows Bush performing as well among men as he has at any time in Gallup’s 2000 election polling, with men favoring Bush by a 56% to 33% margin over Gore. Among women, where Bush had been running behind Gore in recent weeks, the Texas governor has now pulled ahead of Gore by a small margin (46% to 44%). Suburban voters are also showing strong support for Bush, as he currently leads the vice president by 53% to 36% in this important subgroup. Bush’s current lead also reflects his ability to solidify his Republican base, among whom he receives greater than 90% support, and to attract the support of a plurality of independent voters, where he holds a 49% to 29% edge over Gore. By way of comparison, Gore receives 87% of Democratic support. Bush is currently better positioned than Gore when voters are asked if there is any chance that they would consider voting for each of the candidates. While about 60% of likely voters are "in play" for Gore (that is, say they are at least "somewhat likely" to vote for him), almost three-quarters (71%) say there is some chance they would vote for Bush. In addition to the fact that neither Nader nor Buchanan is receiving many votes at this time, the potential voting constituency for both appears to be very small. Only 13% to 15% of likely voters currently say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for either "third party" candidate. Perceived Leadership Skills Give Bush an Advantage The current poll shows Americans as a whole are roughly equally divided as to which criterion is more important in choosing a president -- leadership skills or issue positions. Among those who cite leadership as more important, Bush leads Gore by 28 points, 59% to 31%. Conversely, those who believe issues are more central to their vote choice favor Gore, by a significant though smaller margin, 51% to 38%, a 13-point gap. Other questions included in the poll also underscore Bush’s currently favorable positioning in the public’s mind. When asked whether each candidate has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have, voters are more likely to say Bush does (65%) than Gore (49%). Also, 61% of likely voters believe Bush would make a good president, while only 43% currently believe the same about Gore. Congressional Race Tightens In addition to selecting a new president, Americans voting on November 7 will also decide which party will control the House of Representatives. A switch of only six seats from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party will give the Democrats control of the House. The latest Gallup poll shows Democratic congressional candidates are faring somewhat better than is their standard-bearer at the top of the ticket. Despite Gore’s deficit compared to Bush, equal proportions of likely voters are intending to vote for the Democratic (47%) and Republican (47%) candidates in their congressional district, with the remaining 6% undecided. Among registered voters, the Democratic Party shows a lead of 49% to 42%. Historically, Gallup’s generic ballot methodology of measuring the congressional vote has been an accurate predictor of the national two-party vote for Congress. For the numerical breakdown: gallup.com