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To: niceguy767 who wrote (2634)	7/28/2000 11:09:30 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

My numbers assume the projected figures of 3.6 and 7.2 million Athys as well... Basically, since Q3, earnings after stripping out the Ireland property in Q1, correlate fairly strongly with the assumption that pre-tax eps increases at a rate of about $0.10 per incremental 100,000 Athys... The 3.6 and 7.2 million Athlon figure includes Durons which should sell at a lower ASP then T-birds will (or then classic Athlons did). Also presumably K6 sales will ramp down. Becuase of the low price for each K6 replaceing them with Durons will bring in more money, but since you are allready counting the Duron revenue (and aparently counting them equal to T-birds) you have to remember to subtract money for lower K6 sales. On the plus side as Dresden ramps up the costs will go up much slower then the revenue, as debt is retired interest costs go down, and Mustangs shoud have a high ASP (but how many will sell this year?). I see your estimates as possible but as usual optimistic. (Not as wildly optimisitc as your short term stock price predictions usually are :) I agree with you about the $ to $7 looking conservative. I'm looking for $5 to $8 per share myself, but I haven't done a real detailed analysis. Tim Tim