<font color=red>AND THE PLOT THICKENS...
theregister.co.uk
Rambus, Pentium 4: The Hall of Mirrors
By: Mike Magee
Posted: 28/07/2000 at 07:53 GMT
Back in June we revealed that Taiwanese OEMs were holding off
implementing the first rev of the Pentium 4, because only two or
three quarters after introduction, which we believe will happen in
September, the Tulloch chipset supporting a 479 pin version of the
microprocessor will supersede it.
This week's admission by Intel that it is developing a PC-133
solution for the Pentium 4, probably ready in the second half of next
year, only serves to remind us of that old fairground attraction known
as the Hall of Mirrors, with everything distorted in whichever direction
you look.
This news, which was actually revealed by German magazine PC
Welt back in May, has caused the Rambus share price to behave
like a Bucking Bronco again. Yesterday, its share price closed at
$66.6875. Since the stock split, its high was $127 on June 23.
At the Intel Developer Forum last February, we repeatedly asked
Peter MacWilliams, a top Intel executive and an Intel Fellow, no less,
whether there was any possibility whatever that his company would
introduce double data rate (DDR) memory for the Willamette.
Earlier that day, Dr Albert Yu, a senior Intel VP, had demonstrated
the Willamette to a packed press room, filled to overflowing not just
with hacks but with a good sprinkling of Wall Street financial
analysts. As his presentation continued, and as we tapped our story
into a PC, we were more than a little surprised to hear two financial
analysts sat bang next to us buying and selling Rambus stock, as Yu
can imagine. The Rambus share price soared to dizzy heights
during the course of that day, after a period where it languished in
one of its troughs of despond.
We are now asked to believe that Intel has taken a fresh view, and
over the last couple of weeks, that PC-133 is, for some reason or
other, the right kind of memory for the Pentium 4. MacWilliams then
found it hard to answer the question why Willamette would use
Rambus memory and Foster, the server version of the same
microprocessor, would use DDR memory.
Why, we might instead ask, has the Pentium 4 mirror now become
concave rather than convex, and Intel's premier IA-32 chip will
eventually use PC-133 memory, inferior to DDR memory and, if
MacWilliams and a gaggle of other Intel bodies are to be believed,
vastly inferior to Rambus?
And, for this matter, does this latest excursion onto the Memory
Bucking Bronco mean that Intel has now torn up its existing
roadmaps and wants to start from scratch again?
We're tempted to say "who bloody knows?" but will, instead, attempt
to have a stab at understanding this latest szechuan.
Intel will have three quarters or so to flog the Pentium 4 in its various
speed revs, and using Ramboid RIMMs, before 479-pin Willamette
and the Tulloch chipset emerges from the deep. (That's assuming
Intel hasn't torn up the 479-pin version).
Just one quarter or so after that, according to the latest info, we will
begin to see PC-133 versions of a chipset for the Pentium 4,
perhaps.
In between times, Intel will introduce the Foster microprocessor.
Although that was, according to MacWilliams and other, supposed to
be using a DDR chipset, roadmaps we saw just a few weeks ago
seemed to suggest that Rambus could now be an option for Foster
too.
How is Intel's i815 chipset doing? This chipset, pre-launched at this
year's Computex, represented Intel's partial climbdown over PC-133
memory caused, mainly, because PC vendors and Taiwanese mobo
makers were unhappy with Caminogate (the i820).
We are now given to understand that the big US vendors, including
Dell and Gateway, have moved to i815 based chipsets in many of
their systems.
And where are the DDR chipsets? We searched in vain at
Computex for a sign of the times. ALi was "demoing" its DDR
chipset, but back in June it wasn't working, and, realistically, it will be
October or so before we see any of these in the real world.
Intel, Rambus and Kingston Technology have told us during the
course of this year that the price of RIMMs is falling and will fall.
Yesterday, there was a further price cut in the price of Rambus.
(Check out this informative page for pricing). The price of SDRAM
has risen.
So, perhaps, Intel has a cunning plan to take advantage of these
movements, and flog as many Pentium 4-Tehama systems as it can,
starting in September and continuing through the next three quarters.
When we managed to get hold of the projected pricing of the
Pentium 4, we were surprised at how inexpensive it was. And maybe
all of the above is part of its reasoning. By the time its PC-133
Pentium 4 chipset is out, this time next year, it will have migrated the
price of this microprocessor downwards, and introduced several
speed and big cache revs based on Willamette technology.
Being as paranoid about Via as it admits it is, it will be hoping that
by this time next year, it has an offering for as many levels in the
marketplace as possible. It's just that 479 pin version of Willamette
that's bugging us a little...
Sorry, there's going to be a lot of links to look at below. ®
See Also
The Dramurai
Intel does u-turn on Willamette and synchronous RAM (May this year)
Pentium 4 to use SDRAM
Cheap Rambus memory on way
AMD loose cannon in Intel-Via deal
Via gives DDR ringing endorsement
Rambus rambushes DDR camp
Where the hell... are DDR chipsets?
Rambus exec kicked out of DDR seminar
Mosel predicts rapid death of SDRAM
Roadmaps
Computex 2000 coverage
Willamette to have triflingly short life
Intel server maps show Foster incursion
Intel's cunning server plans
Intel revamps boxed chip roadmaps
Tulloch, Willamette plans firm up
Intel's view on DDR
Intel roadmap times, they are a changin...
Pentium 4 pricing revealed
Intel's pricing: May to September
Chip Pornography
Pentium 4 pictures revealed |
