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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Barron who wrote (1908)	7/29/2000 1:40:18 PM
From: gregor	Respond to of 2561

Richard: You had a great call not only on the mini correction back to 315 ( from 330) but also on the subsequent rise to 350. I was shaken out when we had that sharp 2 day reversal on a supposed bailing out by a mutual family of funds. Did you ever find out what fund family it was. Meanwhile I am heavy into regional banks . I just think they will out perform REIT,s the balance of 2000. Short term its hard to say what the reit's will do. We have another fed meeting in Aug. But you have to admit there is alot of momentum in the sector. The large cap EOP EQR 's are testing their all time highs of 1997. Its interesting to note that the two funds I follow FRESX VGSIX are well below their 97 highs. But I have to assume dividends are not reflected in the nav's. Relative strength has been great, you have to admit that. Irrespective of what the feds do in Aug. i.e. another 1/4 point upside. The reits are being bolstered this week by the gdp numbers. I see the 50 day ma on the ^RMS staying above the 200 day m/a the balance of the year. So I would stay long until the 50 day average intersects the 200 day m/a which I see happening. I also see the rms spiking well above the 50 day m/a at some point in time before years end. Short term its a too hard to call. Surprising strength in the bond market. NAS and techs will have a hard time bucking that trend also. So as yields are falling REIT's as an alternative for a higher yield are attractive. I know this sounds contradictory because bond prices have risen as well as REIT prices.. but the trend is into fixed income securities and we dont want to fight that trend..if bond prices reverse and yields start creeping up all bets are off. So, as we both know the bond market and reits are not always in sync but as for now it seems that they are.....gregor

To: Richard Barron who wrote (1908)	7/31/2000 7:41:15 PM
From: Richard Barron	Respond to of 2561

EPR: Still looks incredibly cheap to me. Here is the explanation of the negative sentiment in the theatre industry. ``We continue to be pleased and confident in the performance of our portfolio properties, in contrast to negative industry news that reflects older properties of a type not in our portfolio,'' said David M. Brain, president and chief executive officer. biz.yahoo.com for the earnings release FFO multiple is just above 5, while most REITs are trading around 8-12. In addition, the P/E of actual earnings is also under 8. Gregor, I'm pretty sure the ^RMS will retest the low 360's, since so many are running hard (like GLB, WRE) in addition to the darlings, and then SPK came in with an incredible earnings report after the market closed. SPK grew FFO around 24% and has something like a 60% spike on expiring leases!!! I imagine it could be up 2-3 points tomorrow, but it has already run a long way. Richard