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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (6965)	7/28/2000 6:35:31 PM
From: Yogizuna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

And we have the seasonally weak period coming up on us rapidly now, so that 3rd wave down scenario has decent odds of panning out in my opinion..... Happy weekend!

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (6965)	7/28/2000 7:53:14 PM
From: Eddy Blinker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (6965)	7/31/2000 4:56:09 PM
From: a3blue	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I am new to SI, but not new to investing. I have known Dick Russell for many years. Here is a recent comment that I made about Dick's bear market view: Stock Market Sectors vs Bull/Bear Mkts a3blue 7/31/00 8:48 am My friend Richard Russell regards the period from late 1968 to late 1974 as a long and treacherous bear market. The DJIA did peak in late 1968 and did not bottom until late 1974. The Value Line Composite (geometric) peaked on a weekly closing basis on 12/13/68 and dropped an astounding 74.7% to a final low on 12/27/74. However, the S&P Composite bettered its late 1968 peak in the first week of the 1973 year by an amount in excess of 10%. In spite of this, the ideal stock market investment strategy to have taken during this period would have been 100% out of the stock market, but ONLY IF YOU HAD PERFECT TIMING. I am mortal, so I do make market timing mistakes. Therefore, even in the 1968-1974 period, the worst stretch of stock market history in my lifetime, I probably would have been better off to have owned some common stocks during the period as an insurance policy for possiblly being wrong on market timing, especially if I paid careful attention to how major economic sectors were performing in the stock market. As the following table shows, even in this horrible period of stock market history, three of the seven major economic sectors that I follow actually rose. Percent Change 12/13/68 to 12/27/74 Value Line Composite -74.7% S&P Composite -37.6% Health Care +25.7% Consumer Staple +13.6% Energy +8.2% Technology -16.1% Basic economy -17.4% Financial -42.7% Consumer Cyclical -47.4% The reason why this is important to consider is that I strongly believe that the period ahead in the stock market will also be one of highly divergent performance of economic sectors. Technology has ALL of the characteristics of an uncompleted major bear market. Other sectors, such as Health Care, very likely have completed their bear markets and will be in rising trends in the period ahead. Therefore, unless you have perfect market timing, own some common stocks - but be very careful of technology. Lets talk sometime.