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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (78076)7/29/2000 2:14:01 PM
From: StockHawk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
>>Reality: the long-term average increase in earnings for listed companies is 10%/year. Not coincidentally, that is also the long term average stock return. Subtract 30% taxes, and you're down to 7%. Subtract inflation, and you're down to 5%. That's what an index stock investor has made, after taxes, in real money, over the last 100 years.<<

Jacob, the most obvious - and interesting - part of that statement is that stock returns have tracked with earnings growth. Therefore, using history as a lesson, it is reasonable to assume that high growth tech stocks (with earnings) should outperform. Also, the last 100 years included a Great Depression and two World Wars and an extended cold war. While everything may not be different this time, there are reasons to belive that we've learned something over the past 100 years and that such knowledge may be beneficially used.

I would agree with you that 40% per year is a reasonable goal for a serious investor, and is indeed bullish. Most will likely fall short of it.

StockHawk