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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DukeCrow who wrote (7802)	7/29/2000 12:44:42 PM
From: lml	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Ali: For ONCE, we agree. I, too, believe (1) that digital programming is an added tier to the existing analog channel line-up; and (2) the MSOs are more interested in broadening their channel line-up & not necessarily offering better picture quality. With respect to my conclusions to the latter, they are based upon how I believe MSOs think. First, they are loathe to spend the necessarily dollars to offer a truly state-of-the art plant because (a) they believe that most subs either don't perceive or know the true difference in terms of picture quality and breadth of potential advanced services that can be offered, and to ensure perpetuation of this situation (b) will create what IMHO is misrepresentative advertising such as convincing customers that digital cable is as good as digital satellite. The truth in most cases is it ain't. The MSOs know that subs are most sensitive to breadth of channel selection. "My friend can get 3 channels of HBO, 20 channels of Pay-Per-View, Starz and Encore on his dish. Why can't I the same on my cable?" So the MSOs figure to push aggressively digital cable merely to "bandage" this vulnerability not perceived by the public, but also to create misleading advertising with respect to DBS service to hopefully avoid future "wounds" in the MSO package in the minds of subs. The present potential wound I refer to is picture quality. Ali, do you live in LA? How are you familiar with Adelphia? Adelphia, as you know, as been on an aggressive acquisition binge the last few years so the capabilities & performance of their systems will vary greatly. If you live in LA, you might be familiar with what they are doing here. I am. And IMHO, it is minimal to stay competitive with DBS, selective with respect to franchises as the swapping of franchises with Charter, Cox, T & TWX is always a constant possibility. Presently, Adelphia, has JUST STARTED to do upgrades in the City of LA. And the primary push is for digital services, not cable modem access. This tells me that the operation here is in a defensive mode. I've never seen so many pro-cable, anti-DBS commercial as Adelphia has aired across various channels the past year. You can see that by the picture I paint here why I am suspect that Adelphia "claims" 1400 "win-backs" in Los Angeles. What does this really mean? Does it mean that 1400 subs, who planned to drop cable & install a dish, decided not to simply because of the promise & subsequent offering of digital cable? I think so. Because, IMHO, there is no way that someone who bought a dish & likely purchased 12 months of DBS is going to immediately dump the dish in favor of digital cable, which Adelphia has only been offering since the beginning of the year, at the earliest, and in only a few of its franchises. Before year end 1999, the only plants capable of delivering digital cable were Santa Monica, and perhaps Redondo Beach. Since that time, plant upgrades in Beverly Hills, W. Hollywood, Manhattan & Hermosa Beaches have been completed. So IMHO, these "win-backs," if there is a modicum of truth in such statement, is more likely the a "loss-saved," not a "win-back," and likely subs in the areas recently receiving digital upgrades. Now the point of all this to an investor is to assess where MSOs are going. And IMHO, the drain of subs will only continue as subs become more sophisticated, and until the MSOs expend the necessary capital to TRULY improved the plant with extensive fiber. I talk to the Adelphia folks about once a month, & have not once received a consistent answer about fiber upgrades. I suspect most of the upgrades in LA will either include minimal fiber, or none. And the primary reason will be timing, as the plant upgrades here should have been done at least 3 years ago, and now the franchise operations out here are bleeding quite profusely, financially, that is, and rightfully so.

To: DukeCrow who wrote (7802)	7/29/2000 5:52:56 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

"In both cases, the digital programming was a separate tier of service which added additional channels to your existing tier; the additional channels were the only ones which were digital. I do not know if this is the way it is done everywhere, though." abukhari- Same deal with both Time Warner here, and GTE Americast. And both my MSO's delivered higher quality digital channels in general(as compared to analog channels). As you know, maybe the content could be the problem of which you noticed little difference. Is it really digitally born, or compressed analog content of which you were viewing? Both of which can be served up on the digital channel. And presently, on our current TV sets, it can't come close to showing off DTV capabilities. Our resolution is terrible on our NTSC analog TV monitors. That really dumbs down the digital capabilities. -MikeM(From Florida)