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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (26225)	7/29/2000 10:20:30 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

JULY 29 INDEX UPDATE ----------------------- SHORT-TERM TECHNCIAL READING: DOW - oversold SPX - CLASS 2 BUY signal OEX - CLASS 2 BUY signal NAZ - WEAK CLASS 1 BUY signal NDX - WEAK CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL VIX - 24.32, overbought/borderline CLASS 1 SELL(inverse to market) CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .59 5 DAY TRIN - 5.94 As mentioned on FRIDAY, I am now expecting a short-term bottom to arrive on MON; however since I dont have strong CLASS 1 BUY signals across the board we could still see another full day of selling and the short-term bottom to arrive on TUE. Last week I raised the CAUTION FLAG with HANDs-a-WAVING and it was timely and the caution flag is still raised to the extent that the overall market is now in a mid-term downtrend. Im not saying crash, but the overall market is weak and could go lower, and at best for the mid-term it could trade in a range at these lower levels. In other words Im not expecting HIGHER HIGHS for awhile, although a trading range is still possible. Also, I had put out a caution flag a few weeks earlier since my short-term technicals were showing an anomoly, which still existed during the last rally prior to the current sell off. Last week I did get a CLASS 1 BUY signal on the SPX and it did bounce 1 day, only to tank further. There were just so many BEARISH WEDGES and BEARISH FLAGS and TRENDLINEs which were broken to the DOWNSIDE like the DOW/SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX/DOT/SOX/VLE/GE/VIX(upside break-bad for market). There are more, but thats enough to support my belief of negativity in the market. gggggggg Im not one to make the prediction on the huge move, but for those who are watching the DIAMOND FORMATON on the DOW, the DOW is now at the LOWER TRENDLINE of the DIAMOND. A slight break of that TRENDLINE may be the hint of the decline continuing/intensifying, but it could also just push the APEX of the DIAMOND futher out. A significant break below that LOWER TRENDLINE, just aint good. Per my short-term technicals the VIX is 1-2 days away from a short-term top for the overall market which is in line with my short-term techs for the various indices. However, for the longer-term it is still not reflecting strong levels of fear. Keep in mind that APRIL, the VIX got into the 40's and back in 1998 it was in the 60's, and lets not forget that back in 1987 it was around 170. So its fair to say that the VIX is still not close to a significant long-term peak, at least not yet. The VIX is still showing complacency/lack of fear. In line with the lack of fear, the PUT:CALL RATIO is still only at .59, so many are still calling for a rally. Im calling for a rally also, just short-term and I hope it does so I can close my recent long positions and add to my short positions. As mentioned previously, I suspect that GOLD/XAU/GOLD STOCKs are near a mid-term bottom and that the time frame for a bounce should be from now until early SEPT. It is very difficult to try and nail the exact bottom since GOLD is so reliant on news/US DOLLAR. There is a slight hint that at least a short-term bottom was reached last week, but cant say if its the more important mid-term bottom, so it could still go lower. The problem with playing GOLD is that once it starts to move, the initial move could be 50% or more of the total incline. Keep in mind that although the XAU did set a LOWER LOW, the price of GOLD did not and is still at a HIGHER LOW. Again, the overall market for the mid-term is in a downtrend, and I dont expect that the mid-term trend can reverse upwards immediately. I am more inclined that the either the DOWNTREND continues or a TRADING RANGE is established at these lower levels. Yes there will still be short-term upwards oscillations, but I would not get overly optimistic unless those upward oscillations can produce HIGHER HIGHs. Even HIGHER LOWS would not make me overly optimistic since that could also just mean a TRADING RANGE/CHART FORMATION like a TRIANGLE/WEDGE/FLAG - I would need to see significant HIGHER HIGHs to become optimistic.