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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4232)	7/29/2000 1:57:07 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

Cary, Good Luck! I am routing for you! I need all of the rooting I can get lately:-( My portfolio is down ~40% from the March highs, because I have every penny and then some invested in semiconductor and semi-equip names. I always look forward to reading your posts. Although I think you are very conservative, I always seem to be able to glean insight from you. I happen to be of the opinion that we are in for a longer upcycle than most people think. One cannot go from historical lows in capex to a "regular" cycle. Additionally, as the PC drops in significance in using IC's, the cyclical curves should be smoothed out going forward as the IC's become a greater part of consumer electronics. I am looking for the high of this cycle no sooner than '03, barring any unforseen world crises of course. But there are major drivers which were not even around during the last pseudo-cycle of '97, such as MP3 players. I stated on another thread that I look forward to the day when I can put 2GB of MP3's onto my Rio at a minimum burn rate of 128kbs. With flash and digital memory becoming increasingly a part of the capex picture, I believe that too many people have a "cookie-cutter" scenario that this cycle absolutely has to be between 2 and 3 years. I believe time will prove them wrong; in fact, you might even say I am betting on it:-) You also seem to take the market's behavior and analysts' comments as personal affronts and your response is to buy more of the "bargains" it and they have created I am tired of my stocks always under attack. One would think we would get a respite after the asian contagion and the recession we have just been through. Either something is out of line with the BTB, tantalum capacitors are dropping in price, someone sneezed on a conference call etc etc etc......The bookings and fab announcements should speak for themselves. Not to mention demand for everything digital! The companies in this sector are small in terms of market cap and could be prone to manipulation. I am not usually one who believes in conspiracies, but I do question some analysts and what they see versus what I am seeing. BTW there is an excellent post here which kind of reiterates what I have been saying, only much more eloquently than I could: Message 14129265 BTW2, I was looking at getting off margin later this year. With this recent setback I wonder if I will have to wait longer. Regards, Brian