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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (48285)	7/29/2000 8:39:58 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi all; Re the busted Dataquest RDRAM penetration forecasts... Several months ago, a mysterious website appeared at dramreview.com . The site pretended to give a balanced perspective on the memory industry, but actually turning out to be a running dog of the Rambus company, as I showed in this post: #reply-13405397. Probably the most effective page at dramreview was the one suggesting that RDRAM had too many shipping products for DDR to ever catch up with it: dramreview.com Dramreivew's logic consisted of two parts. First, they quoted the (now no longer operative) forecasts for future market penetration of RDRAM. Second, they listed all the products shipping with RDRAM memory, and then compared it to all the products shipping with DDR. Funny that they would be looking to the past in order to predict the future. It would have been more useful to count the number of design wins for the two technologies, as that is more indicative of what will happen. But instead, they looked at equipment already shipping, which is a woefully lagging indicator of future trends. Anyway, their figures for Dataquest's estimates of RDRAM penetration was as follows: 2000 2001 2002 2003 12% 33% 50% 62% As I have stated numerous times, the 2000 figures are going to turn out wildly below the above figure. Rambus will be lucky to end up with 2% of the units shipped in 2000, maybe as much as 4 or 5% of dollars shipped. -- Carl