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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (158957)	7/31/2000 11:27:16 AM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Larry, i hope you don't think i was in the crowd that gave Hal a hard time. I found your posts extremely interesting and the accuracy of your programmed buy/sell picks above average. i'd like to run some tests with Hal if you get to the point where public dissemenation becomes a priority of yours. i did state once, to you, that posting points of resistance and support wasn't that useful to me, personally, since i follow these levels with other systems. however, it would probably prove to be useful information to those who do not follow Dell on a regular basis. your posting this information was probably useful to them. i read all your posts. post more often. how does Hal view Dell's current situtation? one issue that Soros and many, many others came up against is the effect which public "buy and sell" programmed picks have on a stock price in and of itself. In other words, what caused the stock to drop more, the "lowering of expectations" or company fundamentals? It's called the Hawthorne effect - the effect which actual research has on the subject being researched.

To: TREND1 who wrote (158957)	7/31/2000 12:00:43 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Larry, in Dell's case the Hawthorne Effect has appeared to play a significant role in it's share price movements. Even as Dell's earnings have consistently risen along with its revenue, the analysts have continued to point their fingers toward the future. They keep pointing regardless of how well Dell has performed for the present. The latest IDC/Dataquest data came out and Dell sold off; yet little was stated in the press about how the method of calculating their data changed, wherein PC sales were moved to Enterprise sales where specific "enterprise" related equipment was involved. So, we see Dell's enterprise division showing a signficiantly higher growth rate than the previous qtr. and the PC division's growth rate dropping. Here again we see analysts taking this data, dropping their expectations, and thus, dropping Dell's stock price. Yet, nothing has changed relative to the overall future growth patterns that Dell is witnessing through their channels (per the ASM). Rearranging data to build future projections yields rearranged future projections. This is so easy to do when dealing with commodotized items. It is more difficult for IDC/Dataquest to arrive at service related revenue projections - an area where Dell is growing stronger.