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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (11025)	7/30/2000 1:03:14 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78523

For awhile jim I seriously consider buying some of the distressed debt of reliance. it is a textbook case on how the market was quite aware that the deal was not going through well before it was made public. in the end i felt there was not enough information as to where assets were held to make any kind of decision as to how much coverage was afforded to the debt. I don't like retailers usually . I think it is a tough fad laden business. Wal mart became successful because they had a winning plan- market expansion, cost cutting, control, economies of scale, service. Probably if I were going to buy a retailer it would be costco. same winning plan more or less. Home depot maybe. every body else you have to guess how well they their management does, how well their buyers buy, how they manage their inventory, where consumers are. I think it is very tough. I also note that the people who seem to have the money strings don't seem to care that much about clothes these days- So teenagers pretty much rule. will they flock back to ANF next year or to something else? I do like SNH but don't own it right now. I have not gotten around to look at the other one yet. I am shying away from home builders and construction. I think the fed overdid it with the interest rates and we are slowing down. lots of empty nesters where i live and they are looking to divest and downsize. the optionaires are a lot broker now, and so are the daytraders I am guessing. meanwhile all these credit card debt problems should tell you something- federated said that the delinquency rate was around 20% on some their portfolios and first secuirty talking about closing its green tree unit- this is desperation. people are going to be spending money for cable more entertainment, and mobile phones, devices that allow them to interact with the office when they are not there. gas prices will also cut into peoples pocketbooks in a non trivial way- Greenspan screwed up and we have yet to find out how bad its going to get. But I can see autos and housing and related getting crushed before things get better.

To: James Clarke who wrote (11025)	7/30/2000 1:20:54 AM
From: Michael Burry	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

And you don't sell Amazon five months before Christmas. I thought about how to reply to this, and it was a tie: 1) No, you sell it when it makes new lows (hint, hint) 2) Christmas? What's so attractive about bigger losses? I kinda like the first one better, but I think the second expresses a certain je ne sais pas. Mike

To: James Clarke who wrote (11025)	8/1/2000 4:48:35 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

James, here is one to look at ,LR, lanier. Seems less risky than REL was several months ago. Company mentioned on this thread last year when spun off from Harris. Net of goodwill they have book of .47 and had 9 months earnings of .25(flat last quarter) They plan to sell off their voice(dictation) business and also restructure eliminating 4-500 jobs. Company has debt of 560 million and net book of only 39 million so leverage is high risk. However they will securitize lease receivables so that only about 200 million will be short term. Board authorized share buy back of 8 of 83 million shares. Completed 4.8 million at $3.61. Operating cash flow of 100 million and annual revenue rate of 1.2 billion seems to support more than a 3/4 price and 62 million capitalization. Last year on this thread their was a discussion of evaluation methods for predicting bankruptcy. Hard for me to belive that LR qualifies. In any case I started a position at 7/8 and would appreciate insight of knowledgeable members of this thread.