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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: richard surckla who wrote (48370)	7/30/2000 10:16:14 PM
From: multicollinearity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

<What would be a wild speculation of earnings to Rambus > Richard, American Express is forcasting fiscal 2001 earnings of $0.46, which is in line with S&P's estimate. Personally, I believe that this figure is too low, but I don't feel comfortable making a projection for this stock. I think any estimate is at best an educated guess since there are so many variables that have to be played out here such as up- front settlement fees by the companies who have conceded, the number, quality, and timeliness of forthcoming settlements, memory price differentials, RDRAM acceptance rate, litigation costs, support or lack of from the big players such as Intel, AMD, Micron, Dell, etc. From listening to the last two CCs and subsequent interviews, I don't think even Rambus has a good estimate of what next year's earnings will be. I believe too many analysts have and continue to make the mistake of judging the investment merits of Rambus by focusing on short-term earnings projections. If all I wanted were the instant gratification from earnings, then I'd be investing in an auto stock with a single-digit PE and a fat dividend. Determining the future value of Rambus extends well beyond near-term earnings and will be determined by more important developments. I have a heavy financial stake in this company because I've read the early chapters of this novel very closely and feel very strongly that I am going to love its concluding chapter. JMHO, Multico

To: richard surckla who wrote (48370)	7/31/2000 8:10:23 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi richard surckla; Re Rambus having 15% of the DRAM market... The issue I care about is RDRAM vs DDR, but I keep seeing this 15% figure quoted and it is seriously in error. It is obtained by adding up the total DRAM production figures for Hitachi, Toshiba and OKI. (1) The Hitachi agreement is only for six months. (2) A good bit of Toshiba's production was already RDRAM, so the royalties on other products aren't as significant. (3) The vast majority of OKI's production isn't SDRAM, and doesn't fall under the Rambus licensing. The actual total figure, for the memory market so far, is probably more like 12% till the end of the year, then declining to 7% or so. Maybe Rambus will sign some more players, but it hasn't happened yet. -- Carl