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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (7311)7/31/2000 12:19:28 AM
From: chic_hearne  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 436258
 
Re: I agree about YHOO, INTC will never be the best short out there, despite the worsening fundamentals you are aware of.

Archimedes, it depends on what you are looking for. Is it a short that you gain 90% on or a short you get 25%? Eventually, you'll get the 90% on YHOO, but it might go to $250 first. With Intel, I think it's a pretty safe short that you won't get killed on.

Intel is a commodity stock with a P/e of 60. Their future product portfolio is nothing compared to what it looked like in the past, it's actually probably the worst it's ever been. This years profit growth has all come off of one time gains. The previous 3 quarters were all boosted by these type of gains. This all but gaurentees that next year will see lower profit growth even if the "core" business does reasonably well. Therefore, the P/e will continue to get bigger and bigger even if business is good. Name one other commodity stock with a P/e of over 50 that is gaurenteed to have lower profit growth in 2001. For these reasons, I think it's a relatively safe short that should provide a nice return. The only reason I'm not shorting now is I'm not convinced the semi's have topped out.