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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3884)	7/31/2000 7:00:25 PM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Hi SbH, Zeev & all - nothing too profound, but this article from Bloomberg seems to offer an alternative worldview :) bloomberg.com [the following excerpt is used for academic purposes only] Bull, Bear Markets Becoming Extinct By Chet Currier (Commentary. Chet Currier is a Bloomberg News columnist. His opinions are his own.) New York, July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Put the bull out to pasture. Send the bear back to the woods. Bull and bear markets -- the traditional terms investors use to classify broad rising and falling trends in security prices -- don't happen the way they used to any more. Today stock-price trends most often occur in fragmented patterns within the market, as individual stocks and groups of stocks go their own very different ways. You still get dramatic gains and losses, such as the Nasdaq Composite Index's 37 percent drop between March 10 and May 23 this year. But note that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost only 1.3 percent over that same stretch. Or look back to the fourth quarter of 1999, when the Nasdaq composite gained 48 percent while the S&P 500 posted a much smaller 15 percent return. ``I'm not sure everyone agrees what 'the market' is any more,'' said Michael Sapir, chief executive of ProFund Advisors LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, which manages $2.6 billion in 27 mutual funds. ``It's a lot more complicated than it used to be.'' This doesn't have to present a big problem for long-term investors. It only reinforces the already persuasive argument for patient, diversified investing. Still, it's a sign worth every investor's attention of basic changes in how the investment game is played. On either the way up or the way down, stocks are less and less prone to following parallel courses. One reason for this: Most fund managers and other professionals, following a continuous ``fully invested'' philosophy, now move money from one area of the market to another, rather than into and out of stocks altogether...

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3884)	7/31/2000 8:01:41 PM
From: U.B. Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, I bought back into QLTI just before the close @ 65.5. I figured I'm in the game, and I have a very close stop at 65, which I swore I would obey. I don't know what I'm looking for on the upside but I'll be paying attention. Regards, Bernie

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3884)	7/31/2000 8:27:05 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, Is this how you got your bottom estimate? Comments?....). I also realize we must re-trace some of the recent run-up. If based on technical analysis, what is the exact basis? Backing and filling of gaps? Trend lines? Can someone please spell this out in detail for me, as I am not experience in Chart Reading. On October 9, 1998 the Nasdaq bottomed at 1419.11 (the last big dip). The Nasdaq peaked on March 10, 2000 at 5132.52. A retracement is by taking a percentage drop from 5132 back to 1419. According to John J. Murphy in "The Visual Investor", the most common retracement figures for a market correction are 33%, 38%, 50%, 62%, and 66%. The Fibonacci ratios are 38% and 62%. Using those retracements gives the following prices for the Nasdaq: 33% = 3,907 (already broken) 38% = 3,721 (already broken) 50% = 3,275 (already broken) 62% = 2,830 66% = 2,682 Retracements of 66% are considered severe. If it retraces more than that, then a total trend reversal is most likely taking place (i.e. changing from a positive Bull trend to a negative Bear trend). So technically, the Nasdaq could retrace back to 2,682, then reverse itself and begin another climb without ever being in a "bear market" trend. It would just be a severe correction within a bull market trend. Look at the Tokyo Nikkei Index for a bear market trend since 1990 - ouch! -surfcr8z