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Technology Stocks : EXLN - Excelon -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hasbeen101 who wrote (556)	7/31/2000 8:33:21 PM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 811

If you look at Oracle's current massive size, it isn't hard to extrapolate backwards to see that the growth rates must have been massive during the 80s. EXLN has a good chance to return to its 40% average yearly growth. 1.4^20 = 837, i.e. two decades of 40% result in a increase of more than 800 times. 1991 Object Design had $4M, by 2011 that would make $3.2 billion, about 1/3 of ORCL's current size. Maybe some people find the gross margin useful, but according to my understanding of security valuation, it is quite irrelevant. Then why did you talk favorably about WEBM (#reply-13673406 )? In regard to margins, the only things I am interested in are the free cashflow or earnings that are generated net of everything. In my model EXLN will have a 12% net margin on sales of $122 million in 2002.

To: hasbeen101 who wrote (556)	7/31/2000 9:07:56 PM
From: Keith Monahan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 811

In regard to margins, the only things I am interested in are the free cashflow or earnings that are generated net of everything. Maybe some people find the gross margin useful, but according to my understanding of security valuation, it is quite irrelevant. I think at this point, B2B revenue growth and revenue visibility are more important than the earnings number. And as long as the cash burn is not an issue (which it isn't now) I say keep plowing as much as possible into marketing and sales to drive the top line. Opportunities like EXLN has today do not come around often. Five years from now, no one will care whether earnings turned positive in 2000 or 2001. They will care whether EXLN grabbed a market share reflective of their superior product line.