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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (30956)	7/31/2000 9:24:26 PM
From: Densiebj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

For a free lifetime membership, contact me capitalD

To: Rande Is who wrote (30956)	7/31/2000 9:33:57 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Any opinions on GBLX? GBLX is one of the "Stocks I Love to Hate". It has unique assets and is in the right space in all the right places, yet its been one of the year's most disappointing stocks. It closed today at $25, which is near its 52-wk low. I sold out of it earlier this year because I felt that the Street regarded it as similar to Amazon.com -- a world of potential and promise, with never-ending acquisitions, more and more red-ink, and ever-widening losses. At some point, GBLX becomes an intriguing value play. Does anyone have a feel for this stock? Is it a takeover candidate? When would you enter it (or would you)?

To: Rande Is who wrote (30956)	7/31/2000 10:35:12 PM
From: Paullie	Respond to of 57584

Not quite TA, but here is how I play with the numbers. Below are two spreadsheets. Both list the same securities - the first lists what the price of each security would be if it trended (percentage wise) exactly with the NASDAQ. The second chart shows what the price of each security would be if it had a 5% greater correction than the NASDAQ. Look at these and draw your own conclusions. Personally, I feel that some of these companies will fall harder than the 5% number. See my targets below the charts. TREND WITH NASDAQ ^DJI 10521.98 ^IXIC 3766.99 3450 3350 3250 3150 3050 91.59% 88.93% 86.28% 83.62% 80.97% ATML 29.9375 27.41827693 26.62354426 25.8288116 25.03407893 24.23934627 BDH 87.625 80.25140762 77.92527987 75.59915211 73.27302435 70.94689659 BRCD 178.625 163.593811 158.8519614 154.1101118 149.3682622 144.6264126 BRCM 224.25 205.379494 199.4264652 193.4734364 187.5204075 181.5673787 CIEN 142.125 130.1652646 126.3923584 122.6194521 118.8465459 115.0736397 EMC 85 77.84729983 75.59085636 73.33441289 71.07796941 68.82152594 FSDCX 66.81 61.18797767 59.4144131 57.64084853 55.86728396 54.09371939 GLW 235 215.2248878 208.9864852 202.7480827 196.5096801 190.2712776 JDSU 118.125 108.1848505 105.0490577 101.913265 98.7774722 95.64167943 JNPR 142.4375 130.4514679 126.6702659 122.8890639 119.107862 115.32666 LPTH 29 26.559667 25.78982158 25.01997616 24.25013074 23.48028532 NTAP 86.1875 78.9348724 76.64690509 74.35893777 72.07097046 69.78300314 QLGC 74.5 68.23086868 66.25316234 64.275456 62.29774966 60.32004332 QQQ 89.4375 81.91138681 79.53714371 77.16290062 74.78865752 72.41441443 SFA 76.75 70.2915325 68.25409677 66.21666105 64.17922532 62.1417896 TREND 5% AHEAD OF NASDAQ ATML 29.9375 25.92140193 25.12666926 24.3319366 23.53720393 22.74247127 BDH 87.625 75.87015762 73.54402987 71.21790211 68.89177435 66.56564659 BRCD 178.625 154.662561 149.9207114 145.1788618 140.4370122 135.6951626 BRCM 224.25 194.166994 188.2139652 182.2609364 176.3079075 170.3548787 CIEN 142.125 123.0590146 119.2861084 115.5132021 111.7402959 107.9673897 EMC 85 73.59729983 71.34085636 69.08441289 66.82796941 64.57152594 FSDCX 66.81 57.84747767 56.0739131 54.30034853 52.52678396 50.75321939 GLW 235 203.4748878 197.2364852 190.9980827 184.7596801 178.5212776 JDSU 118.125 102.2786005 99.14280774 96.00701497 92.8712222 89.73542943 JNPR 142.4375 123.3295929 119.5483909 115.7671889 111.985987 108.204785 LPTH 29 25.109667 24.33982158 23.56997616 22.80013074 22.03028532 NTAP 86.1875 74.6254974 72.33753009 70.04956277 67.76159546 65.47362814 QLGC 74.5 64.50586868 62.52816234 60.550456 58.57274966 56.59504332 QQQ 89.4375 77.43951181 75.06526871 72.69102562 70.31678252 67.94253943 SFA 76.75 66.4540325 64.41659677 62.37916105 60.34172532 58.3042896 My targets at this point (may or may not post a change to my targets due to starting back at work on WED in new job) and 4 month price targets are: BRCD $135.70, with target +50% = $203.54 CIEN $107.97, with target +50% = $161.95 JNPR $111.99, with target +50% = $167.98 JDSU $92.87, with target +50% = $139.31 LPTH $24.34, with target +300% = $73.02 QLGC $62.53, with target +100% = $125.06 This is the basic kind of logical analysis that I do. The companies I used in this exercise on numbers all had the following characteristics: 1) In hot sectors: FO, Data Storage, Broadband Communications 2) Most "bounced" hard in the spring 3) All companies that IMO have had good earnings reports and have a very high growth rates 4) I believe these stocks are still very much in favor and are all (almost all) making $ (as opposed to .com, b2b, etc.) The companies I chose as targets, I did so because: 1) See 1-3 above 2) I believe in their long term prospects 3) At those prices, I see 50%, 100%, and in LPTH case a 300% return very quickly All IMO, Paullie