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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (47406)	8/1/2000 7:16:29 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 63513

Tom,new IPO's are important as they can oversaturate the mkt GS has been a significant player, this past month, as well as all year. I don't have numbers for this past month. I should have some upcoming month ipo numbers from briefing.com, remind me when I return from the morning meetings. JP

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (47406)	8/1/2000 4:13:50 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 63513

Never Hoard Your Cards at the Top By James J. Cramer 8/1/00 12:35 PM ET Underwriting cycles remind me of Pokemon. In the beginning there are a couple of characters that everybody likes. The merchandise flies out the door, the branding is perfecto. The buyers can't get enough and there is genuine scarcity value to the product. But the Pokemon makers know that you have to make hay when the sun shines because, well, have any of you ever tried to cut hay in the rain? Bummer. The possibility of flooding the market with dozens and then hundreds of characters creates an irresistible urge among the creators. They can't help themselves. There is too much money to be made. Alas, in a few months' time there are so many characters created that they all seem to be worth less and, voila, values crash and we are on to the next craze. At home I am witnessing that dilution with a parade of Pokemon characters that have zero recognition or scarcity value and are serving only to bring down the value of the beloved Pikachu and Bulbasoar. I think the kids are 10 or 15 more characters away from shelving Pokemon and moving on to whatever the Japanese have in mind next. (Keep coming up with stuff and you'll be out of that depression in no time!) Just last weekend I saw a 7-year-old kid give Pokemon cards to one of my kids. That's right: "give." No trading. No barter. No inability to part with darling Gengar or lovable Charmander. And at work, we are in the early stages of doing so with the opticals and communications. Everybody who has anything optical -- heck, I keep waiting for Sterling Optical to throw up something that sticks -- is bringing it public. Soon there will be too many opticals and not only will we not want to "catch them all" we will be sick of the surfeit and want to move on to the next craze. Knowing when that happens is, strangely, the key to timing the craze for maximum profit. You have to play it to the hilt until the craze is no more because, like Pokemon, there is still much money to be made until the last marginal unit is sold. This process, which once seemed almost mystical to the public, is starting to become a tad more obvious. For example, I have received many emails of late saying, "Aren't we taking the optical stocks to ridiculous valuations like we took the e-commerce stocks and the business-to-business infrastructure stocks?" To which I say, of course, that's part of the game, that's the way it works. Welcome to the real world. Heck, I am even toying with developing an optical league to go with a potential wireless league. The only thing keeping me from doing it is my desire to be in a great football pool because my beloved Eagles look good this year! But I know the moment we do introduce the American Stock League of Wireless and the National League of Optical, the top will not be far off and people will blast us for pandering even as we try to learn. C'est la vie. Perhaps it is enough to point out the cyclical nature of the underwriting business, from scarcity to surfeit, and hand out caveats saying, "Don't get caught hoarding optical cards at the top!" If you do, don't say I didn't warn you. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hurry! Time is running out to see James J. Cramer live in New York City Aug. 7, 2000. Click here for details: bigfishinc.com