Hi Scumbria; Bilow gloats over his victory (w/o pretty picture).
This thread has seen the repetitive quoting of Dataquest RDRAM forecasts by RMBS bulls, (mostly Dave B):
"The granddaddy of all of the research companies we've been discussing is Dataquest and here' what they have to
say..." #reply-13465694 April 19, 2000
"Nothing else to add, Carl. The premier research firm has spoken." #reply-13465725 April 19, 2000
"As Dataquest said, however, Intel's 100% commitment to RDRAM will drive its price down until it's cheaper than
SDRAM (their statement, not mine)." #reply-13466313 April 19, 2000
"Dataquest says that we will:" #reply-13501181 April 26, 2000
"Dataquest talks to everyone." #reply-13501393 April 26, 2000
"That would be a Dataquest-paid professional -- one of the largest, most respected, most connected research houses
in the business." #reply-13541512
"Carl, You proclaim to know everything about memory and I'm trying to weigh your inputs against those of the
Dataquest analysts Jim Handy and George Iwanyc" #reply-13608265 May 7, 2000
"One more vote supporting the credibility of the analysts from Dataquest." #reply-13613172 May 7, 2000
"Carl, who has little or no interaction with the industry as far as we've seen so far, be considered even remotely
credible when compared to the Dataquest analysts..." #reply-13617706 May 7, 2000
"Dataquest analysts Jim Handy (who wrote "The Memory Cache Handbook") and George Iwanyc have said that RDRAM will
eventually cost less than SDRAM and that it will reach 75% to 80% market share. Carl believes otherwise, as you've
probably seen." #reply-13621682 May 7, 2000
"On the one hand, I have Dataquest analysts who travel the world talking to memory manufacturers, systems
designers, et cetera who say that RDRAM will be 75% of the market. On the other hand, we have Carl who says there are
no new design wins and that it's dead-dead-dead." #reply-13623121 May 7, 2000
"Jim Handy, DRAM analyst at Dataquest, based in San Jose, Calif., for example, ..." #reply-13635145 May 8,
2000
"My personal belief is that Dataquest has the best handle on the situation ..." #reply-13744752 May 20, 2000
Rambus, too, has quoted Dataquest: "Kanadjian points to projections from research firms Instat and Dataquest that
show RDRAM achieving a better than 40 percent share of the memory market by 2002," #reply-13506633
As has the dramreview pump site:
Dataquest RDRAM market figures (2000-2003): 12% 33% 50% 62% of DRAM market
dramreview.com
I've been saying since late 1999 that RDRAM was doomed, and in addition, that the time when it would become obvious
would be the summer of 2000:
November 26, 1999
Sales of memory in 2001 are largely determined by design wins in 1999. Rambus died in mid 1999. You won't see product
from early 1999 design wins until 2000, so you will see new products coming out that use Rambus. But that is a
lagging indicator. The leading indicator is what design engineers are doing right now, and they know that Rambus is
dead. Nintendo is just the tip of the iceberg. The vast majority of memory design wins go unmentioned in the press.
The loss of the most important Rambus customer should indicate to even the most hopeful long that the technology is
dead. You'll see the DDR-II when the design wins it is picking up start shipping. #reply-12107435
November 29, 1999
The Hyundai guy is speaking the truth. Memory is going over to DDR. Intel lost. Rambus is quite dead. The company
will remain, but the royalties are going to dry up, probably within 5 years, though the trend will be quite obvious
by the end of next year,[i.e. end of 2000] #reply-12138310
December 17, 1999
Hi dpk; As long readers of this thread are no doubt well aware, I believe that Rambus, as a dynamic technology for
the future is dead, dead, dead. In fact, I've posted to that effect many times, complete with extensive links to
articles in EE-Times. I still think that the technology isn't getting much in the way of new design wins (which is
distinct from design win announcements, in that design wins come first), all we see now are the spasmodic involuntary
movements of the technology's death throes. I know that memory designers are running away from this technology about
as fast as they can, and I base my knowledge of the subject on the fact that I design memory for a living (when I'm
not trading). #reply-12314399
December 21, 1999
I am not saying that there will be no shipments of product containing it. What I am saying is that new design wins
are not happening. I am not saying that the manufacturers have stopped pushing the technology, only that the design
engineers are not seriously considering it anymore. #reply-12345679
December 29, 1999
Thanks for the wish for savory satisfaction, I have already taken a good bit of it, and I expect to get a good bit
more of it by this next summer [i.e. summer 2000]
...
[Re graphics] But new design wins in that market are going to specialized application specific DRAMs such as 32-bit
wide DDR SDRAMs. Rambus is frozen out of that industry. #reply-12404040
Mar 23, 2000
As I said earlier, these problems will manifest themselves by this summer, as announced DDR design wins begin to
obviously lead RDRAM design wins. #reply-13266844
You will not see design win announcements from the last six months until this summer.#reply-13267159
Apr 11, 2000
As I have said many times in the past three months or so, RDRAM is quite dead, the next standard memory technology
is DDR, and the summer of 2000 is when you will start to see it. #reply-13393803
Apr 15, 2000
The first prototype systems will show up this summer, and when the board houses begin to think that they are
getting ready to ship volume, they will begin letting them out to reviewers. Tests will be run comparing them with
RDRAM at about the same time. Jdassoc will begin reporting DDR compatible motherboards late this summer. It isn't
going to be pretty. #reply-13432559
When it became possible to piece together RDRAM production figures from Samsung press releases, I announced that the
Dataquest RDRAM figures for 2000 were going to be way off. I also noted that Dataquest makes DRAM forecasts every six months, and that those predictions were due to be released soon:
"Sometime soon, Dataquest should publish its estimates of DRAM market penetration by memory type &c. I'm pretty
sure that the figures for RDRAM will show substantial reductions from their previous overoptimistic estimates. I can
hardly wait to post the comparisons, along with the corresponding Semico figures." #reply-13840758 June 7, 2000
"(3) Dataquest releases DRAM production estimates every 6 months, and is due about now. See my post detailing how
they have had to reduce RDRAM estimates for 2000 drastically in each of the past three releases: #reply-13620094. The
new predictions will be out within two weeks or so, and they are going to reduce their estimates yet again. (And I
will post "I told you so.") It is possible that in addition to reducing their predictions for 2000, they will also
drastically reduce their predictions for further out years." #reply-13848169 June 8, 2000
"Actually the problem with the revisions in the Dataquest figures is that they could conceivably include a
reduction in peak RDRAM penetration." #reply-13849077 June 8, 2000
"Instat and Dataquest are going to have to reduce their numbers again." #reply-13941255 June 25, 2000
Now, what I predicted has come to pass, both the fact, and the timing:
"We will have to reconsider our Direct Rambus projections,” which had shown Direct RDRAM accounting for more than
40% of the DRAM market's unit shipments in 2002, said Jim Handy, an analyst at Dataquest Inc., San Jose."
ebnonline.com
-- Carl
P.S. Estephen is not about to leave. Even after DDR is shipping for six months he will still say it will be a short lived dismal failure. After that, he will just ignore it. |
