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To: Road Walker who wrote (106531)8/1/2000 12:09:33 PM
From: Harry Landsiedel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
John Fowler and thread. Re: "Intel and productivity"

Here's an excellent article from today's WSJ tieing recent productivity gains from '95-'98 directly to Intel.

New Economy Finds Converts
In Two Skeptical Economists

By STEVE LIESMAN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Overall, productivity grew by about 2.3% annually from 1995 to 1998, more than a full percentage point higher than the growth rate from 1990 to 1995. There are three classic sources for productivity growth: capital investment, labor quality and technological progress.

The analysis of Messrs. Jorgenson and Stiroh says that the biggest gains have come from the latter source. They then break that down and attribute about 30% of the gains from technological progress directly to productivity gains in the tech sector.

But computers have been around for a long time. Why does productivity growth begin to accelerate in 1995?

Mr. Jorgenson, in an interview, points directly to Intel Corp. Beginning in the early 1990s, he said, the company perceived a threat to its dominance of the semiconductor market. It dramatically cut the time it took to create a new generation of chips and sent faster and more powerful chips into the market at a quicker pace. The result was a sharp decline in computer prices that began in 1995. While prices fell about 15% annually between 1990 and 1995, they began declining at almost a 30% annual clip in the 1995 to 1998 era. The price decline unleashed an investment boom as consumers, including both business and households, gravitated "toward relatively cheaper inputs," according to Messrs. Jorgenson and Stiroh.

The rise in capital investment has played a major role in the productivity increases, the economists argue. Their work is backed up in a study by two Federal Reserve Board economists earlier this year. Dan Sichel and Stephen Oliner also found huge productivity gains in the high-tech industries and from the greater investments spawned by falling technology prices.

**************************

People are finally recognizing the key role of Intel's innovation in the economy, and it's about time.

HL