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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: willkm3 who wrote (29185)	8/1/2000 11:50:25 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Willkm3: Welcome to this board, and welcome to the Hunt. We look forward to more of your contributions, as they relate to the Gorilla Game. I see you own XLNX. Could you be kind enough to give us an overview of this company? I don't believe it has been presented here before. It doesn't have to be a full-fledged report, just an overview and your perspective. Plus, how does it fit in with the GG, in your view? Apollo

To: willkm3 who wrote (29185)	8/1/2000 1:12:15 PM
From: JDN	Respond to of 54805

Dear willkm3: yes, that was an excellent post you made and exactly what I was referring too. JDN

To: willkm3 who wrote (29185)	8/1/2000 3:06:52 PM
From: EJhonsa	Respond to of 54805

"Nortel's high-end DWDM system delivers up to 320 gbps with 32 channel DWDM on OC-192 fiber." "...Lucent's WaveStar OLS 400G optical networking system delivers up to 400 gbps capacity with 40 OC-192 channels." Nice post Will. I just want to correct one error within it: Nortel's high-end system, the OpTera 1600, can handle 160 OC-192 wavelenghts for a total of 1.6 tb/s, making it the undisputed leader in this field for now (see nortelnetworks.com. According to Gilder, Lucent's got a 320-wavelength system in the works, but each channel operates only at OC-48 (thus the 800 gb/s system you were talking about. Meanwhile, Nortel's demoed an 80 gb/s, 80-channel system in its labs. Yes, you're math's right. The end result is an obscene 6.4 tb/s of capacity. That should allow them to hold off NEC and its 3.2 tb/s, assuming that someone will want/need all that bandwidth. Of course, every time people (including me) have pondered the possibility of a bandwidth glut, another set of blowout quarters by Nortel, SDL, and JDS Uniphase has shut them up pretty quickly. What's even more remarkable about all of this is that I'm sure a large percentage of all of this traffic growth is simply coming from existing 56K users spending more time online. When broadband really starts taking off, the sky's the limit. One last thing to keep in mind is that system capacity numbers aren't all that matter. For example, carriers may be willing to pay an additional premium for Nortel's ULTRA long-haul system which it got from QTera, due to the fact that it can send wavelengths 4,000 km without the need for regeneration, leading to tremendous cost savings, especially if you use all-optical switches, thus getting the need for regeneration at network junctions. Another thing to keep in mind is that if a carrier has to decide between two systems with equal capacity, one with a larger number of wavelengths, another with higher wavelength bit-rates, the latter will generally be cheaper. The reason for this is that for every wavelength used in a DWDM system, you need an additional laser, modulator, receiver, filter, etc. You also need more amplifiers for such systems. This is why Nortel, which has tended to focus on bitrates rather than channel counts, has been so successful. Gilder, of course, has been critical of Nortel and high on Lucent for this reason, predicting an era where individual data transmissions are allotted their own channels, preciptating the need for as many wavelengths as possible, with minimal attention being paid to bitrates. But Gilder be damned, such an era is at least several years away, perhaps longer, and it's Nortel, by going against this philosophy and making a fortune now, that should have the greatest R&D resources when that era finally comes. Eric PS - Mark, Apollo, thanks for the compliments.

To: willkm3 who wrote (29185)	8/1/2000 7:23:32 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

Hi will, glad to see someone liked that photonics stuff. I'll leave the answer to your question to others, since my technical abilities and understanding lie a couple of notches below Merlin's--which is saying something. tekboy/Ares@MWM,notDWDM.com PS UF, if you want flagellation in private, I'm sure you can find some people in San Francisco to oblige. PPS Cha2, my comments about rebalancing were made in the context of a market gripped by fear. It should go without saying that I reserve the right to rethink them should we ever again see a market gripped by greed. PPPS Cha2, re "weak hands," that's harsh--especially as I have rope burn from hanging on so tightly all the way down! Are you really "Rudy" from Survivor? PPPPS Cha2 or anybody: where's Eric L.???? I'm getting worried about him. PPPPPS roonz, re There must be teeming hordes of lurkers out there devouring your every word, I sure hope they aren't reading tractorboy! <GGGGGG>