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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7854)	8/2/2000 12:08:47 PM
From: lml	Respond to of 12823

IMVHO, the financial media still seems to be behind in understanding that digital TV marketplace is exploding. Probably because it's so hard to understand. And IMHO, they are also neglecting the rollouts of cable telephony. Sorry, Mike, I don't understand what's difficult to understand. It is much easier for MSOs to rollout digital services than to rollout cable modem service or telephony over coax. It is cheaper and it is quicker. [You do recall how I explained how an HFC upgrade is not absolutely necessary.] MSOs know a lot more about delivering broadcast signals than delivering 2-way Internet access or 2-way telephony, as each requires the layering of an additional network over the physical layer of their existing broadcast platform. In practically all cases the MSO must contract out the work to provide Internet access (i.e. @Home, IFCI), and either lease, purchase or build their own network infrastructure to deliver access of such services to their subs that are indisputably distinct from the delivery of one-way broadcast signals. Hence, IMHO, the surge in demand for STBs is the least bit surprising. [You will recall my assessment of what my MSO, Adelphia, is doing in my backyard . . . digital service first, then cable modem access.] Couple the foregoing facts with the cable modem supply shortages MSOs are now experiencing given the parts acquisition problem of most cable modem manufacturers. Telephony, IMHO, will be the most difficult, and the most time consuming for the MSOs to deliver and succeed. Just consider all the connections that have to be tied into the PSTN to make telephony over coax "full service." You're familiar with Pronto, and the issues presented by cutting the copper loop at the neighborhood gateway rather than the CO. SBC is first; other RBOCs will likely follow. This will present problems for the MSO who wishes to tie into the PSTN at the CO, when much of the switching will be done at the RT, which BTW is not where the MSO's coax runs. IMHO, the MSOs are going are chasing a moving target with respect to plans to tie their coax lines from their headend to the PSTN at the CO. Not only will they have to connect to the PSTN, but also provide many of the advanced services that the telcos will be offering via the neighborhood gateways by example, but now have to do it themselves either at the CO or their own facilities. I say that unless you gonna use T to deliver your telephony over coax, good luck.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7854)	8/3/2000 5:28:43 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 12823

Thread- As most know, I like to post factual figures supporting comments/opinions I make. But in this case I don't have time to gather up, edit down, and post comments and articles. Therefore IMVHO, just from my general reading in the last month or so, there appears to be VERY strong demand for digital TV services offered up by the MSOs. IMO, much stronger than the demand for cable modems, and surpassing cable telephony demand too. An article was just posted on the CUBE thread, about Telewest in the UK having demand exceed supply. And just this AM, the CEO of Charter(USA 4th largest MSO) was on CNBC. His comments were along the same lines- Demand exceeds the ability for the MSO to supply. AND best of all(this is the stuff I like to focus on), for every additional digital TV sub, Charter signs on, they get and additional $19/month. That is a substantial amount. No wonder the MSOs are not waiting for the NAB/FCC/STB/ITV/VPG/ETV/VOD/HDTV (lml- this is the complicated part), etc... players to work out all their differences. IMHO, the MSOs are just saying, "Give me the analog/digital box as quick as you can, and we'll go install it. We'll work out the details later." -MikeM(From Florida)

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7854)	8/5/2000 7:03:21 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12823

Re: Digital TV Stats- STB Vendor Pioneer and MSO Time Warner Thread- I know I posted similar info upstream, but this blurb contains a few more stats not covered previously. -TWX has 12.7 million total subs(analog and digital) -TWX has wired 889,000 digital TV subs to date -TWX plans to have 5.7 million(!) digital TV subs by 2003 -MikeM(From Florida) ______________________________ Time Warner -- which currently serves more than 12.7 million customers in 32 states -- said it had 889,000 digital-video customers June 30, a 107 percent rise versus year-end-1999 numbers. "We expect to have 45 percent digital penetration among our basic subscribers by 2003," Hayashi said, adding that all but three of Time Warner's 40 divisions are using the Pegasus platform. "We are digitally loaded," he added. The MSO's digital footprint currently covers more than 11 million homes, a Time Warner spokeswoman said. Pioneer's Voyager box contains hybrid analog features, as well as more advanced digital capabilities such as video decompression, Internet-protocol addressing, 32-bit processing and 4 megabytes of flash memory.