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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (7817)	8/1/2000 6:41:54 PM
From: Dave-in-MarinCa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Terry: I think we are saying the same thing. It was 1 in 4 a few weeks back; now 1 in 3 based on Bloomberg quoted yields this afternoon. Here is their study: <http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/curr_iss/ci2-7.pdf> They're saying these are the odds for a recession 4 qtrs from now. If the trend is your friend, this trend is definitely unfriendly for the economy and the market. It just keeps deteriorating as time goes on....... or improving in the CFZ <ggggg> Dave

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (7817)	8/2/2000 8:39:16 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<There has 100% always been a recession at some point down the line, right> yea, like this winter. DAK

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (7817)	8/2/2000 11:29:12 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Yield curve inversion history, 4-to-7 Mos. before Peak of BEA business cycle: Inv.Curve Peak(Beg) Trough(End) 10Yr Rate 3Mo. Rate 10Yr-3Mo. Oct-59 Apr 1960 Feb 1961 4.69 4.70 -0.01 Jun-69 Dec 1969 Nov 1970 6.57 6.88 -0.31 Jun-73 Nov 1973 Mar 1975 6.90 7.75 -0.85 Jul-79 Jan 1980 Jul 1980 8.95 10.18 -1.23 Jan-81 Jul 1981 Nov 1982 11.75 13.15 -1.40 Dec-89 Jul 1990 Mar 1991 7.84 8.26 -0.42 NOW Jan? 2001? 6.00 6.23 -0.23 This indicator has a 86% forecasting accuracy. Only during the 1966/67 time period did successive monthly yield curve inversions not forecast a recession. These estimates are the best I can do and are from the St. Louis FRED's GS10 and TB3MS(adjusted to yield basis) series.