To: dougSF30 who wrote (3223 ) 8/2/2000 11:33:13 AM From: david_langston Respond to of 275872 Doug, Re:Any thoughts on whether a SOX bottom is close at hand? If you believe that SSB's Joseph is totally wrong and the chip market will run to mid-'02 before a bust starts, then this is just a severe correction in the middle of a bull market for semis. So far this year, this sector looks to be repeating the patterns of the Jan-July,'93 and Jan-July,'97 periods, but we ran up a good deal more this year more than in those times. Ideally I think we need to see an ugly mini-selling climax at the bottom and then a few weeks of low volatility due to cessation of selling, but no real interest in buying either. I've been hoping that it would happen soon (before Sept. starts) to just get it over with and that the decline would be no more than 10-15% from today's levels. The intraday decline on the climax day would be higher of course. [Pardon the delay. My neighborhood went up in flames due to a brush fire and power was out. Had to go out and watch the fire in case of an evacuation possibility.]Also, are you generally inclined towards spending announcement ammo in an up-market, vs. spending it in a down market to try and slow the fall? I think that they would get better results in an up-market. I'm not sure that the management is interested in stopping some of these major dips. In the past few year's 2nd qtrs, sometimes they seem to have refrained from actions that would mitigated the plunges. I've concluded that they were assigning options during these periods and actually want the stock price low!! Also, any chance that AMD is holding back a bit on announcements until 5PM tomorrow? Albert is more the expert on that. I just know enough to be really dangerous. <G> Dave