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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (7837)	8/1/2000 8:15:35 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

heinz, hasn't pooling-of-interest and other cooking book accounting techniques left CSCO with a 0% tax rate?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (7837)	8/1/2000 11:51:36 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

The Bear Market Is Not Only Not Finished We haven't even seen much of it yet. Not being able to escape the Gap was only an example that the Bull is growing weaker. Regardless of whether the bottom of the gap provides support I think we will see at least two more major moves down. The first will be a retest of the May lows. The second will be establishing a sustainable bottom. I could see the retest of the lows taking place this month. The timing for the big one is problematic. It could occur possible as early as this month, but I think this would be the case only if there is some type of catalyst. More probably it would unfold either in October of this year, or what appears to be the more likely scenario, in January 2001. Earnings reports in those months will make it abundantly clear that a slowing economy is not good for corporate earning. I imagine that there is enough creativity that the 3rd Quarter of this year can be managed so that companies are still able to by and large meet estimates. Year-end numbers will be different. I expect this years holiday season to be slower than anticipated. Consumers will have less to spend due to increased costs, (no inflation though <gg>, less money and wealth, due to low stock prices and lowered expectations for salary increases as well as bonus awards (based on company guidance), and very little credit. The increase in Corporate and Consumer credit defaults will also be impossible to deny. Under the best case this final leg down, which I anticipate will put the Naz at 2000 to 2200, will significantly alter the standard of living for most people in the US, will see the growth of US GDP slowed to between 1 to 2%, and will have inflation at 5 - 8%, all for at least 3 to 5 years. While there would be corporate failures, including some financial services firms, the overall system will remain intact. I worst case scenario would see a significantly greater destruction of the economy precipitated by failures associated with inadequate risk management in the derivatives market. It is difficult to say what this could look like since it will be so bad that it will require "fixing" by politicians, the result of which will be even greater damage (wage and price controls are child play). Under this scenario initial inflation would ultimately give way to deflation. Regardless, we ain't seen nothing yet.