Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (121494)	8/2/2000 1:34:25 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1575551

Investor mass psychology often runs from one extreme to the other: from Pollyanna optimism to dire discounting of solid current results. Unfortunately, when our herd instinct kicks in many investors buy after stocks have run up and sell when they are cheap. As always, the basic things to ask are "are the basic reasons I was attracted to the stock still in place or reinforced by recent events and information?" and "What is the trend in outlook for the stock?". Will sales get better or worse than current expectations? What is the seasonal pattern for this sector? I'll leave it to others to draw their own conclusions. Rob, You said what I was trying to say yesterday just that much better. I hope everyone on the thread reads what you have to say. I agree that investor sentiment re the semis and most tech stocks are weak right now. I also think that institutions may have slowed their selling but unfortunately they are not buying either. However I was encouraged by the reaction to positive comments on XLNX..both XLNX and ALTR have popped up nicely. Hopefully, these pops will hold and that it's one of the first signs that the semi's may be putting in a bottom. If so, it will take a while but I think we will know before October. But these downturns are hard. Yesterday, I almost sold my AMD twice but then I realized, I am not threatened by margin calls and I believe AMD has more to run. In other words, the Fat Lady may have warmed up a little but I don't think she is anywhere near ready to sing. JMHO. ted

To: Rob S. who wrote (121494)	8/2/2000 2:12:31 PM
From: d e conway	Respond to of 1575551

<< seasonal pattern >> from my post on the moderated thread: We are following the standard pattern. The time to own this stock is Oct thru March...period. The time to NOT own this stock is Jul thru Sept, and probably not for Apr thru June. Quarterly data (from VERY ROUGH eyeballing on charts) is as follows (approximate prices are from 1st day to last day of quarter): Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 year Jan-Mar Apr-June Jul-Sept Oct-Dec 2000 30-60 +100% 60-80 +33% 80-? 1999 29-16 -45% 16-18 +13% 18-18 0% 18-30 +67% 1998 19-29 +53% 29-17 -41% 17-19 +11% 19-29 +52% 1997 27-40 +48% 40-37 -8% 37-30 -19% 30-19 -37% 1996 17-17 0% 17-14 -18% 14-14 0% 15-27 +80% Average +31% +4% -2% +40% If we follow these numbers, (not considering the split) we will be at about 78 by Sept 30 and 109 by Dec 31. Sept 30 can't get here fast enough. regards, Dan