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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Venkie who wrote (159104)	8/2/2000 2:12:36 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

A perspective on DELL from the Raging Bull thread... ragingbull.altavista.com Good luck investing. Best Regards, Scott BTW, Venkie if you want a real ride check out Avici Systems...AVCI is creating a new paradigm for data transmission....IMO, this new fiber optics pioneer may have 'Juniper-like potential'...It's too early to tell for sure. Yet, its my largest position and I plan to ride this one as long as the firm delivers. Last night it was revealed that Avici was able to recruit one of Lucent's top fiber optics General Managers -- quite a coup..;-).

To: Venkie who wrote (159104)	8/2/2000 2:34:09 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

K-K-K-Kumar's math: the enterprise division is growing at 50% this qtr. according to Dell, with no slowing up. SUNW gave a similar rosy scenario (only rosier). Given Dell's revenue last qtr. of $7.280 billion. project a 22% growth in PC division, 50% growth in enterprise, and 30% growth in laptops. total revenue one year from now 1Q would equal $9.423 billion. $7.280 X 1.3 = $9.464. So, 30% growth from today is highly achievable given the sector growth or picture here. to assume that Dell's growth will not equate to 30% overall over the next twelve months, you must assume that the PC growth rate will be either (a) less than 22% or (b) laptops will be less than 30%. to assume that the Enterprise sector's growth rate will be less than 50%, you must discount everything SUNW has stated relative to the growth of this sector (which McNealy insists is inaccurate given the amount of backlog). an enterprise growth rate of 50% per annum from today WOULD YIELD ANNUAL ENTERPRISE REVENUE FOR DELL THAT IS STILL ONLY 25% THAT OF SUNW'S! Dell stated that they felt confident that they could rachet their enterprise sector closer to 1/2 that of SUNW's over the next couple of years. In order to do that they will need growth of AT LEAST 50%. To assume that Dell's PC sector's growth of 22% will not be achieved (which, by the way, is only about 7% to 8% above the expected worldwide average), you must make many assumptions regarding Dell's inability to execute going forward. Given the significant shift toward laptops, it also seems highly unlikely that Dell can't achieve anything less than 30% growth here. There are simply too many variables pointing toward another year of sustained growth in laptops. One must also consider the wireless laptop coming on this year and next. This factor alone could sustain growth in this division in excess of 30%. Kumar: "secular weakness"? why not "religiously devoted to sustained weakness" (in his view)? cbs.marketwatch.com Chip, PC shares get green light By Janet Haney, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 1:18 PM ET Aug 2, 2000 NewsWatch Latest headlines NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Semiconductor shares spearheaded an advance by technology stocks Wednesday while a downgrade for shares of Dell Computer dampened enthusiasm for the PC giant. The Goldman Sachs Computer Hardware Index ($GHA: news, msgs), a key indicator of PC and related stock movement, mustered a 0.8 percent gain. U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray sent a tremor through shares of Dell (DELL: news, msgs), downgrading the stock to "buy" from "strong buy." The PC maker's shares lost 1 1/2 to 40 1/16. "As we have indicated previously, we continue to believe that Dell does not have adequate earnings power in notebooks, servers and non-system revenue to offset the secular weakness in consumer and commercial desktops," wrote analyst Ashok Kumar in a research note. The investment firm said Dell's current sales growth guidance of 30 percent is "unsustainable." Dell will report its second-quarter results on Aug. 10. Hewlett-Packard (HWP: news, msgs) shares lifted by 5 13/16 to 113 11/16 and IBM (IBM: news, msgs) gained 3 5/8 to 114 1/8. Today on CBS MarketWatch Dow, Nasdaq advance smartly New home sales data hints at cooling economy Treasury auction plans unchanged Oil futures boosted by inventory data StockWatch: European tech companies to emerge as leaders More top stories... CBS MarketWatch Columns Updated: 8/2/2000 1:19:52 PM ET In the chip sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX: news, msgs) traded up 3.2 percent, encouraged by a leap in shares of programmable logic device makers Xilinx and Altera. "Overall, the reality of the chip business is the cycle is still very very strong, despite some commentary to the contrary," commented Bruce Lupatkin, general partner and portfolio manager for North Bay Technology Partners. "As evidence comes in, particularly in the speciality semiconductors that this cycle is absolutely extraordinary, you'll see the SOX firm up and those stocks continue to perform well." Trading within the sector has seesawed in the last week, while investors digested various Wall Street reports in regard to the future of the chip industry. Credit Suisse First Boston upped its fiscal-year 2001 and 2002 earnings and sales estimates on Xilinx (XLNX: news, msgs), citing strong bookings throughout July. PLD makers let electronics manufacturers custom program logic chip to perform specific functions. Shares of Xilinx rose over 8 percent to 76 3/4 and Altera jumped 7 3/8 to 100 3/8. Additionally, PLD chipmaker Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC: news, msgs) advanced 3 3/8 to 54 1/4.