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To: MARK BARGER who wrote (3376)	8/2/2000 5:00:44 PM
From: Jerry Miller	Respond to of 10713

209.10.210.210

To: MARK BARGER who wrote (3376)	8/2/2000 5:05:53 PM
From: patricksullivan1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10713

I agree with Mark. I listened to the conference call 3 times and it was quite positive. I'll post my notes later tonite. The CFO forecast 55-65% growth in earnings for FY01. I consider that a strong statement considering how quickly people will sue a company for the slightest financial disappointment. Pat

To: MARK BARGER who wrote (3376)	8/2/2000 6:54:10 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10713

Mark, I am trying to decide what it is all about. You mentioned that the post from Yhoo was all wrong. The guy made about 21 points. Could you go through them and explain which ones are wrong or right and why? Anybody else can comment too - Thanks, Franz boards.fool.com This is wat somebody posted on Yahoo: 1..LED'S GREW 15% SEQUENTIALLY..OUCH 2..HB LED'S NOW 75% OF LED REVENUES. 3..LED PRICES TO DECLINE AT LEAST 25% MARGINS TO FOLLOW UNLESS YIELDS CAN BE INCREASED... 4..SMALLER LESS EXPENSIVE CHIPS AFFECTING LED MIX... 5..CREE HOPES VOLUME WILL MAKE UP FOR LOWER PRICES PER UNIT...BUT YIELDS AND COMPETITION ARE BIG PROBLEMS... 6..3 INCH FAB/EPI NOT EVEN A FACTOR IN NEXT YEARS NUMBERS...BIG PROBLEMS WITH 3 INCH FAB......... 7...BIG EPITAXY PROBLEMS WITH YIELDS..MUCH WORSE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 8..OVER-CAPACITY BEING FORECAST IN NEAR FUTURE 1-2 YEARS... MAJOR COMPETITION.... 9..NO MENTION OF OLED TECHNOLOGY..BUT STRESSING LED'S ARE SUITABLE FOR LARGE DISPLAYS. 10..OSRAM CONTRACT NOT DONE AND NOT FIGURED INTO NEXT YEARS BACKLOG.... VERY TROUBLING(40% OF REVENUES) 11..ASIA AND PATENT FIGHT UNCERTAINTY REPRESENTS ANOTHER 40% OF VOLUME...(BIG ASIAN COMPETITION) 12..SAPPHIRE STILL MORE EFFICIENT FOR HOME LIGHTING 28% WALL EFFICIENCY.. 13..I MAY HAVE MISUNDERSTOOD.. BUT IT APPEARS CREE MAY ALSO BE WORKING WITH SAPHIREE FOR HB PRODUCTS VIS A VIS NITRES........ 14..HAVE NOT MEET YIELD OBJECTIVES. 15..R & D SPENDING TO INCREASE AS A PERCENTAGE OF REVENUES... 16..INVESTMENTS AND CASH AS OF END OF JUNE. MVIS ALONE IS OFF 20 POINTS.. CREE'S CURRENT ASSETS DOWN BY AT LEAST 30 MILLION....... 17..ONLY 60% YEAR OVER YEAR GROWTH PROJECTED..OUCH..OUCH...OUCH... 18..LOW DOUBLE DIGIT SEQUENTIAL QUARTER GROWTH FORECAST FOR NEXT YEAR OUCH.....!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 19..EPS FORECAST FOR 55-65% YEAR OVER YEAR GROWTH....OUCH!!!!!! 20..BLUE LASER NOT TILL END OF 2002 FISCAL YEAR....(TOO LITTLE TOO LATE) 21..INVENTORY LEVELS INCREASING.... NOW YOU KNOW WHY THE BIG BOYS ARE SELLING....... ***************************************** Here is another one: Greetings all CREEtins. I have listened to the conference call and here are my impressions: 1. Analysts were doing their best to fool each other into thinking this was a great quarter so they could offload their positions first. The "Great quarter" comments were hardly enthusiatic. 2. CEO Neal was largely unprepared and shaky. In April CC, Neal stated that having penetrated only 0.1% of the wireless backlighting market was a positive in that there was huge potential for future growth. Now in July, with wireless stocks floundering, Neal was trying to sell to analysts that it was a positive that penetration was only 0.1% in that it would not affect forward growth. What kind of double talk is this from a CEO? 3. Revenue growth as a Q over Q percentage slowed drastically. 4. Book to bill ratio of less than 1. Backlog has been depleted from 12+ months since the start of the year to 6 months. And why are they expanding capacity? In addition, contract of primary customer is up for renewal in August and there are no guarantees. Just take a look at HLIT and how it was affected by slowing orders from its 40% customer AT&T and what impact it had on its stock price. 5. The "blue laser 50-100 point gapper" Unclewest is so fond of looks like it may never come. I have to believe once the JDSU-SDLI acquisition is completed, SDLI's blue laser program will be accelerated with JDSU's resources and will come to market well before CREE in June 2002. 6. Analysts were obviously disappointed with the (lack of) progress on the 3" wafer fab line. It appears this will not impact capacity expansion/mfg efficiencies/revenue growth for another 12 months at earliest. 7. Neal warned that prices for LEDs and margins would begin falling--but that this was a good thing. What business school did this guy attend anyways? 8. Forward quarterly analyst estimates raise the red flag of slowing growth. Actual EPS of .30 this Q, estimate for next Q is .31 and the following Q is .32? Can this P/E be sustained with forward Q over Q growth of 3%? Longs, I am letting you know that you should seriously check yourself tonight. This is trading exactly like CTXS did prior to analysts downgrading their price targets from $135 to $15. Heavy down volume before and after the conference call and INCA on the ask indicates institutions running for the exits. They will get back in eventually, after they downgrade and bring the market cap back to a sustainable level. I wish you all well but I do believe that you will wish you had listened to Ace and sold at $180-200. IF this ever does recover, it won't be so swift--you will be fighting alot of bagholders who just want their money back. The fundamentals have changed. Given this, I suspect the max market cap this market will support is in the neighborhood of $1.5B. With 33M shares outstanding, that would put the price at 45 1/2. I can't wait to hear the longs howl that that will never happen. That's what the CTXS and HLIT longs said too... You think the execs saw the writing on the wall this Q when they dumped in the 120's? My question is this. If price targets mean anything, why is QCOM where it is after it had a $250 price target slapped on it when it was trading at $150. Answer: the fundamentals changed and the institutions dumped. Also, if the NAZ does have its typical August correction back to the low 3000's, where will that leave CREE--a company that has lost the trust of Wall St.? Only you as a shareholder can answer that question. Do you trust management? Ace