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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (48781)	8/2/2000 10:22:02 PM
From: SBHX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Zeev, $4/share with a float of 94.5M = 378M. Let's assume all of revenue is earnings. (vbg) Assuming a 2% royalty, total worldwide memory sales in that peak year is 50*378M = 18.9B. (Possible?) Assuming a 1% royalty, total worldwide memory sales in that peak year is 37.8B. (Not Possible in next 5 yrs) I don't know if the royalty is based on retail price or not, but what the oems pay for memory might be much lower than what we pay in mail order retail. I don't have the worldwide PC sales in 1999, but lets assume that in 2002, 189M PCs are sold, this would mean the oems are paying $100 (roughly what we pay retail for 128MB --- note $/MB decreases with time) for memory in each PC box to get that 18.9B figure. This is possible with inflation, but that number is kind of high for now, but possible. But these patent(s) have to be airtight and impossible to design around. Eg, if the patent is only about a register on each mem chip that allows the memory controller to detect latency setting, then putting a few transistors outside on the dimm might(?) actually get around the patent at a final cost of pennies. Alternately, allowing the system BIOS to be set by the OEM (or making them the MAX value) will eliminate the need to support this variable latency circuitry. Will this still violate the patent(s)? (this part is just a joke) RMBS should look at hiring more lawyers. How about those lawyers who sued the tobacco company successfully? If they can paint the memory manufacturers in the same light as the tobacco manufacturers, RMBS could own all those memory manufacturers too. (vbg) 2 yrs from now? Don't know, but I'm sure in the short term, RMBS will be very volatile and move dramatically up and down and up and down. Hard to say what the long term trend is. Amazing valuation/employee though, eh? SbH.