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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jason W who wrote (13535)8/3/2000 10:07:16 AM
From: Michael Kim  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 60323
 
Jason, you have raised many of the same questions that I have myself. Aus, hopefully you will have time to address these from Jason's post:

Message 14154800

The most general take that I have is the market understands (or understood) that flash is supply constrained. Good for prices, good for margins. But this can't go on too long because OEM manufacturers that depend on flash will continue to seek out lower cost data storage solutions (and if one came along TODAY you can bet that there would be a stampede into the new standard). You can hear their frustration when they have talked about the flash shortages. So the price of flash will have to start coming down to keep everyone on board. That's bad for flash producers because their margins will be affected - and this will become a top line game. I have heard several comments on the end of the flash shortage - if this is true, and supply is catching up with demand, again prices will fall - bad for flash.

As I had mentioned in an earlier post, how much flash does one person need? Will I keep buying new cards? Or will I only add to my flash inventory when I get a new flash-enabled gadget? That is limiting also. That would imply that CF sales are very dependent on new digital camera, MP3, etc. sales. If sales of any of these items plateaus, you can expect that the market will interpret a slowdown in CF.

And the worst thing that could happen is if CF is used to distribute music or video. Commercially recorded music, video or software will always be distributed on the lowest cost medium and that will mean that CF has been commoditized.



To: Jason W who wrote (13535)8/3/2000 11:02:03 AM
From: Ausdauer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Jason,

1. What are the leading candidates for a technology that could possibly replace flash in the future? 2. When is the future (a product supplanting flash)? 3. When will supply outweigh demand for CF? 4. Are the current and future uses of CF going to push out the supply/demand factor further than most ANALysts imagine? 5. Are decreasing price and margins a major concern going forward for SNDK? for their royalty stream? 6. IF a product comes along to supplant CF, do you think everyone will just throw away their current DC, MP3, cell phone, or other device that currently uses CF? (sort of a rhetorical question) 7. Why is SNDK stock dropping so much? 7a. Do you believe "the street/analysts" don't know/understand the story? or do they understand it just fine and think CF is a fad? OR do they not know SNDK exists? 8. Why is SNDK rarely mentioned when flash is discussed on TV or print media? 8a. Is SNDK obscure or does their PR suck? I am looking for answers...I have liked stocks and companies before, but I feel especially confident w/ SNDK. Am I blinded by enthusiasm? or does the potential for multiple tornados in DC's, MP3's and cell phones really exist? Will SNDK be the largest benefactor of flash? Do the 100+ companies that use CF as "the standard" hold no weight? Will their royalty stream combined with their own growing sales create a Gorilla or King? I am just wondering aloud as my investment stagnates...is SNDK going to pull a RMBS/QCOM type move SOMETIME in the future?

I share your frustration, Jason.

Aus